Celebrating 3 Years and Closing Out 2024

The Supply Times Issue #69

Author

Naseem Malik
December 19, 2024

Hello again, dear readers!

Here we are—issue #69 of The Supply Times—marking not just the final issue of 2024 but also the 3rd anniversary of this newsletter. It's wild to think about how far we've come together since I first hit "send" back in 2021.

In 2024 alone, I've published 22 issues, with somewhere around 60,000+ words packed into this labor of love. That's a lot of insights, reflections, and a fair share of hot takes on what's shaping supply management, the world of work, and beyond.

As we wrap up another year, I've been reflecting on our journey— the big wins and the lessons learned. This year's issues tackled everything from AI in procurement to the evolving future of work and the relentless challenges of supply chain disruptions. Some topics dominated the headlines for mere days, while others continued to influence the path ahead.

Here's a quick roundup of what we covered this year, complete with links for those who want to dive deeper. It's been fascinating to see what resonated most, and I hope these insights have been as valuable to you as they were to me.

Thank you for being part of this milestone year. Your curiosity, feedback, and shared passion for this field have made The Supply Times what it is. Let's close out 2024 with purpose and head into 2025, ready to tackle whatever comes next.

The first issue of 2024 was about the year ahead - looking back, many of the predictions made appear to have held true (so far). I wrote about ongoing shipping disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts and climate change, and how companies are leveraging pandemic-era strategies to navigate these challenges. I highlighted how retailers are managing to stabilize operations by reducing stockpiles and simplifying product choices. I also touched on the "Great Reshuffling," where global trade is shifting away from China to alternative suppliers like Mexico, Vietnam, and India. Additionally, I looked at the trucking industry's hopes for recovery after a tough period, along with the border challenges posed by U.S. Customs intermittently closing crossings. 

I also covered predictions about a cooling labor market in 2024, resilient consumer spending, and an ongoing hesitation among companies to lay off employees considering the Covid-era challenges of hiring them - I was wrong on this final point! 

In issue #0049 I wrote about Boeing’s ongoing safety and quality issues. The door plug blowing out of a 737 Max 9 over Alaska was only one of a long list of potentially catastrophic mishaps. 

On the career front, I touched on research that backed up what many of us already suspected: remote workers might miss out on promotions because of something called “managerial proximity bias”. Plus, I wrote about how the mass layoffs we saw in 2023 were just the tip of the iceberg as companies dove deeper into cost-cutting and efficiency measures.

For my 50th issue, I dove into the latest developments in the remote-working debate. Just when it seemed like everyone had agreed that remote work was the future, some companies backtracked, leaving knowledge workers who had signed on for remote roles feeling betrayed.

But that wasn’t the only betrayal happening in corporate America. If someone had suddenly seen a 15-minute meeting pop up on their calendar from HR, it might have been a warning sign that their company was cutting back after the over-hiring spree. I referred to it as the "Great Betrayal," and you can read more about it below.

On a different note, Wegovy made headlines! Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drug became so popular that it actually shook up Denmark’s economy, prompting the central bank to step in. For those who kept an eye on supply and demand, they knew what happened when a product gained that much traction—demand started to outstrip supply. I also dug into the strategies Novo and its parent company used to keep those Wegovy syringes flowing out of the factory.

In this issue, I took a look at the extraordinary turnaround at GE. What was behind this success story? Some said it was the bold leadership of Larry Culp (yes, I’m a big fan), while others believed it was due to a series of well-timed divestments. Or perhaps it was a secret weapon in the form of a 70-year-old Japanese Kaizen sensei. You can find out more below.

I also jumped into Microsoft’s Future of Work Report, hot off the press at the time. The experts at Microsoft were truly excited about the potential of LLMs. They talked about “provocateur” AI that would push back on assumptions, AI that used our verbal conversations in its learning models, the rise of “appropriate reliance,” and more.

Was this my “Red Scare” issue? I explored the “unfathomable absurdity” (according to China) of US restrictions on advanced chipmaking technology, the Biden administration’s urgent efforts to close trade loopholes, and President Xi’s “Directive 79,” which aimed to boot American technology from Chinese state-owned enterprises within five years.

This issue also covered the latest insights around the jobs of the future: what they were (hint: they were all in STEM), the projected growth of STEM occupations, and specific human skills that became more in demand than ever as prompt engineering took off.

Housing (un)affordability; everybody’s favorite topic. You might remember that the National Association of Realtors agreed to a $418 million settlement in an antitrust lawsuit after a federal jury found that the organization “conspired to artificially inflate agent commissions on the sale and purchase of real estate.” Unless the basic equation of supply and demand is addressed, housing abundance and subsequent affordability will remain a pipedream.

In other news, Bayer CEO Bill Anderson rolled out a radical-sounding plan to remove an entire layer of bosses and bring in a project team-based model to get things done much faster. I also checked out the secret behind medical tech company Hologic’s incredible “headcount neutral” record, where they successfully avoided mass layoffs despite going through several cycles of peaking and falling demand.

Did carmakers jump too far, too fast, into the EV revolution? In this issue, I wrote about how the  global industry experienced a sudden and worrying slowdown that could have spelled disaster for the likes of Tesla. Or were we simply witnessing a plateau between the first wave of early-moving consumers and mass-market adoption? Since then, we’ve certainly seen the impacts of Chinese overproduction. 

Also, if you were in HR, had you considered offering “Grandernity leave”? Older workers flooded into offices around America, and employers needed to act fast to attract, engage, and retain them. It was a symptom of the ongoing retirement crisis that was bound to happen as the aging Boomer generation put the system under increasing strain.

Towards the end of April, Amazon was reportedly caught engaging in all sorts of dodgy behavior, including setting up a shell company to engage in ten years’ worth of corporate espionage. Below, I took a look at this emerging story and linked it to a specific incentive at Amazon that rewarded employees for gaining access to data at any (unethical) cost.

Also, I wrote about a startling rise in independent workers across the US workforce, particularly among Gen Z. This has created an ongoing headache for HR and other leaders who were on a fast learning curve to engage with freelancers and manage a blended workforce effectively.

A strong dollar may seem like a sign of economic strength for the United States, but not everyone was celebrating. In this issue, I explored why the strong dollar was causing stress for our trading partners around the globe, affecting their export competitiveness and potentially leading to strained economic relations. I discussed how this situation also creates challenges for manufacturers here at home, who may find it difficult to compete with cheaper imports and face rising costs.

On another front, we’ve been talking for quite some time about how AI will act as a sidekick to help us do our jobs better. That vision of the future is no longer just a concept; it’s now a reality shaping the workforce. I wrote about six specific jobs where AI is fundamentally changing the nature of work.

I chose this headline because the twin choke points of Suez and Panama mean that today’s supply routes resemble something out of the sixteenth century rather than the twenty-first. In issue #57, I explored how these longer shipping routes were placing immense pressure on rates and ports, leading to knock-on delays and increased costs that affect the global economy.

On another note, American workers are getting lonelier! This growing isolation is not only harmful to their health but also detrimental to businesses. With motivation down and absenteeism up, organizations are seeking solutions. Should we consider rolling back the remote working revolution, which may be contributing to this loneliness?

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In June, Apple faced a major antitrust lawsuit from the DoJ, accused of stifling competition since Steve Jobs's era. Did Apple really lock out rivals to protect its ecosystem? I dove into the details of this major lawsuit.

Also, have you ever worked in a team where the main focus was on looking busy rather than on actual outcomes? Performative work is a deep-seated problem in many cultures, usually driven by managers who prioritized visibility over results. 

Houston, we have a disengagement problem! With only 33% of US and Canadian workers considering themselves “engaged” at work, this challenge moved well beyond an HR issue. It had real, tangible impacts on our bottom lines and global competitiveness. I provided a deep dive into the key findings from Gallup’s State of the Global Workplace report.

That wasn’t all. This issue also featured a summary of the warnings from Leopold Aschenbrenner’s massive, erudite, and concerning essay on the future of AI.

Back in July, I wrote about how both Biden and Trump positioned Made in America as a central tenet of their presidencies and campaigns. The argument was that homegrown products would make our companies—and the wider economy—bigger, stronger, more resilient, and protect our nation from expensive supply shocks. 

A little controversially, I looked to China for an inspirational example of this happening in practice. The Chinese tech giant Huawei survived everything the US threw at it, launched a Made-in-China turnaround, and came roaring back with profits surging 564% year-on-year in 2023.

I also wrote about hybrid working, reflecting on how we had been doing the whole hybrid working thing for years—are we any closer to getting it right? How many days a week employees should commute to the office? How should we manage scheduling, safeguard culture, and maintain productivity? At this point in the year, more organizations were announcing back-to-the-office mandates. 

In issue #61 I wrote about the startling fact that only 10% of ransomware attacks are reported. Companies often keep it quiet to avoid the regulatory headaches and reputational loss that come with being hacked. They are also far more willing to negotiate and pay hackers than you might think. A gripping story in The Economist at the time described a ransomware attack on an unnamed administrative services provider. While the company leadership panicked, someone was smart enough to engage expert ransomware negotiator Nick Shah.

I also wrote about Prop 22 being upheld in California, which means gig workers at companies like Lyft, DoorDash, and Uber will remain contractors. These companies must have been relieved, as they saw Prop 22 as an existential threat to their entire business model. Meanwhile, labor rights groups expressed their dissatisfaction with the ruling.

This issue covered the Grande-sized drama that was happening at Starbucks, where CEO Laxman Narasimhan was pushed out after just 16 months. He was replaced by Chipotle’s star performer, Brian Niccol.

I also touched on the toxic culture of overwork plaguing many organizations. The tragic death of a 35-year-old investment banker sparked serious conversations about working conditions and 100+ hour work weeks in the white-collar world. 

Oh, and I shared some exciting news—my book finally came out!

I had a lot of trouble with my newsletter platform when the time came to send this issue. Why? The CrowdStrike outage. I wrote about this epic slip-up that wiped over $5.4 billion from Fortune 500 companies, causing global cyber-dramas reminiscent of the Y2K panic. 

I also highlighted a worrying trend for those of us keeping an eye on the talent market: salaries were falling. Jobseekers across several industries were lowering their salary expectations by up to $20K as companies slashed spending. I explored how employers were managing this situation—hint: geography played a significant role!

I wrote issue #64 after watching Trump and Harris clash on tariffs during the presidential debate, with each trying to brand the other’s approach as economically and politically dangerous. It got me thinking about what we learned from the last tariff war in 2018. Were tariffs good or bad for U.S. consumers, businesses, importers, and the nation? With tariffs set to become a major pillar of the incoming administration’s trade policy, it’s definitely worth understanding how well they worked last time around. 

I also dove into the data from a major report by Workday on remote working, along with some interesting insights into effective hiring practices.

In this issue, I wrote about the skyrocketing energy needs of data centers. Experts are sounding the alarm that as the demand for these energy-hungry complexes surge, they could seriously impact our efforts to combat climate change. AI is rapidly evolving into the hungriest beast of all. Click below to discover some of the innovative solutions being proposed.

On the topic of AI—or GenAI, more specifically—it is crucial to listen to the experts rather than the alarmists to understand the future … which is why I included a summary of nine expert opinions on GenAI’s impact on the future workplace.

Wegovy again! In this issue, I wrote about how GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic have enormous potential beyond just weight loss. We saw exciting results in areas such as managing kidney disease, heart attacks, strokes, and even Alzheimer’s. There is a fortune to be made, but with Chinese competition heating up, patents expiring, and generics starting to appear, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are no longer set to control the entire market.

I also looked into new research on why employees quit. Researchers established four “Quests” that explain the motivations behind handing in a resignation letter. Understanding these can help employers shape better experiences that might drive down attrition rates.

This issue had the highest open rate of the year… and also the most unsubscribes! That’s the Elon effect, I guess.

I wrote about the private sector stepping into the ring to reform the government sector, led by the most eccentric CEO of them all. Elon Musk, supported by Vivek Ramaswamy, has been tasked by the incoming Trump administration with stripping an eye-watering $2 trillion from the federal budget. How successful could he be? Love him or hate him, we know that Musk gets things done—just look at SpaceX.

I also revisited one of my favorite topics: the importance of hiring older workers. Fascinating new research showed that worker motivations evolve with age, yet too few firms recognize the changing priorities of older workers when designing their talent systems. I explored how we can better recruit, reskill, and retrain older workers while respecting their strengths.

America first, baby! The numbers are in, and the future looks bright. I reported on how the U.S. continues to outperform other wealthy countries, with our economy described as “the envy of the world.” Overall, economists are increasingly confident that this will be another American Century—despite decades of predictions that this would be a Chinese, or possibly Indian, century. 

I also posed a question: can you think of one thing at work that is universally disliked yet persistently popular? Performance Improvement Plans (PIPs) are on the rise, despite being despised by staff and managers alike. I explored what you should do if you find yourself on a PIP—find out below!

📕 Read - SMERCOMICS

Michael Smerconish is the host of a daily radio program on SiriusXM and a weekly television show on CNN. His passion project is his daily newsletter, featuring twenty news links each day, hand-selected by Smerconish. The newsletter also showcases the work of four award-winning editorial cartoonists who each draw exclusively for the newsletter one day per week. 

SMERCOMICS is a one-time, special collection of these cartoons that tells the story of the 2024 presidential election. I’m glad I secured a copy because it’s currently sold out.

Closing Thoughts

With over 8,300 readers tuning in, The Supply Times has grown into something I’m incredibly grateful for. Whether you’ve been here since the inaugural issue or joined somewhere along the way, your time and attention are highly appreciated.

As we head into 2025, I’m excited to continue exploring the challenges and opportunities shaping our industry and delivering insights that spark ideas and drive impact.

Thank you for being part of this journey. Here’s to new opportunities, bold ideas, and another year of making waves in our professional sphere. I wish everyone a Happy Christmas, Holiday Season, and New Year! See you on the other side!

-- Naseem