Hello again, dear readers!

Doomsayers predicted that after American domination of the 20th century, the 21st century will belong to China. The feeling of a nation in decline hasn’t been helped by searing criticism during the election, where the economy was consistently targeted as weak. But the numbers are in, and the future looks bright. The U.S. continues outperforming other wealthy countries, with our economy described as ‘the envy of the world”. All in all, we’re now confident that this will be another American Century. Read more below. 

Also, can you think of one thing at work that is universally disliked yet persistently popular? No, I’m not talking about email chains. Performance Improvement Plans (PIPs) are rising despite being despised by staff and managers alike. What should you do if you are put on a PIP? Find out below. 

This issue features the usual bunch of AI Insights and recommendations for the week's podcasts, books, shows, charts, and tweets, followed by a final chuckle.

Let’s get going.

Industry Highlights:  Another American Century

The 19th century is often celebrated as the British Century, marking the height of the Empire when Brittania dominated international politics, trade, and the oceans. Then came the 20th century, when the United States emerged as the world’s superpower, especially after World War II. America became synonymous with innovation, economic strength, and cultural influence, profoundly shaping the modern world.

But what about the 21st century? For years, many economists have predicted that this century would belong to China—or even India. However, as we approach the end of this decade, those predictions seem more than a bit overblown. Despite some challenges, all signs indicate that the 21st century will continue to be another American Century. This isn’t just cheerleading on my part - the fundamentals are genuinely in place. 

For this analysis, I’ve relied on two pieces of recent journalism: Why America is Soaring Ahead of its Rivals by the Financial Times, and The Envy of the World special report by The Economist.

Economic Resilience Amid Criticism

Despite relentless criticism from politicians and the media, the American economy has shown impressive resilience. From Clinton to Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden—no matter who’s in office, the U.S. economy has consistently outperformed its wealthy counterparts. Since the end of 2019, the GDP has surged by an impressive 11.4%, with the IMF forecasting growth of 2.8% this year. Meanwhile, the Eurozone is limping along, expected to grow by only 0.8%.

Putting the recent shale boom aside, this performance isn’t just a stroke of luck; it’s thanks to a strong foundation built on innovation and productivity. U.S. labor productivity has grown by 30% since the 2008-09 financial crisis, outpacing both the Eurozone and the UK by more than three times. This translates directly into higher wages and better living standards for many Americans.

Labor Productivity: A Driving Force

One of the standout features of the American economy is its remarkable labor productivity growth. Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, U.S. labor productivity has surged by 30%, significantly outpacing the Eurozone and the UK by more than three times. By September 2024, output per hour worked in the U.S. had increased by 8.9% from pre-pandemic levels, maintaining annual growth rates between 2% and 2.8%. This impressive productivity surge boosts corporate profitability and translates into higher wages and improved living standards for many Americans.

Meanwhile, labor productivity relative to the U.S. has declined in most advanced economies, including productivity powerhouse, Germany:

The Power of Innovation

America’s commitment to research and development is another big reason for its economic success. Over the past decade, the U.S. has captured a whopping 83% of venture capital funding among G7 nations. This focus on innovation attracts talent and investment, especially in high-growth sectors like technology and artificial intelligence.

While the talk about the Chinese or Indian century has been loud, both countries face their own challenges. China is grappling with demographic shifts and economic restructuring, while India deals with infrastructure hurdles, an education gap, and huge conglomerates that can stifle growth. In contrast, the American economy is relatively young and dynamic, filled with a robust startup culture that thrives on innovation and risk-taking.

Potential Hurdles Ahead

But let’s not ignore the bumps in the road. Our $36.17 trillion in federal debt no doubt keeps some economists awake at night. Rising income inequality and high housing costs can create social friction, and many argue that the social safety net is stretched thin. Additionally, the political landscape is unpredictable; policy shifts will undoubtedly impact trade relations and immigration—both vital for economic growth. What will happen to our tech sector if America’s attitude to migrants means we no longer attract the world’s best and brightest? Global economic uncertainties, like inflation and fluctuating interest rates, also pose risks - but commentators agree that the biggest harm to the U.S. will be self-inflicted. Navigating these issues will be crucial for keeping the economy on track and ensuring growth benefits everyone.

A Young Economy Compared to Others

The youthful nature of the American economy is a key advantage. This isn’t just about age; it’s about energy, adaptability, and a willingness to embrace change. Young economies are more innovative and flexible, responding quickly to new technologies and market demands. This agility allows the U.S. to maintain its leadership in emerging industries, setting it apart from older, more established economies that often struggle to adapt.

Looking Ahead

It’s clear that the U.S. is well-positioned to keep its economic leadership. The adaptability and resilience shown over the past few decades suggest that America is not just surviving but thriving. Economists expect continued growth, with predictions of a 1.9% growth rate next year—the fastest among G7 nations. This forward-looking perspective reinforces the belief that the U.S. will maintain its competitive edge.

Plus, the U.S. is attracting significant foreign direct investment, capturing 14.6% of the world’s greenfield foreign direct investment in the first ten months of 2024—a record high. This influx of investment creates jobs and fosters new industries, further solidifying America’s economic position.

The Future of Work: Performance Improvement Plans

Performance Improvement Plans (PIPs) are becoming increasingly common in U.S. workplaces, yet employees and managers often dread them. In a time when companies are trying to navigate economic pressures and heightened performance expectations, PIPs have emerged as a controversial tool for managing underperformance. So, why are they so universally disliked, and why do they keep popping up?

For many, being placed on a PIP feels like a public shaming—a clear signal that you’re not measuring up. This stigmatization can lead to anxiety and disengagement, making it even harder to improve. Many professionals argue that PIPs rarely lead to genuine performance enhancement. In fact, in 2023, the percentage of workers involved in formal performance procedures, including PIPs, rose to 43.6 out of every 1,000 workers. 

Survivability is low. 75% to 90% of employees on PIPs leave the company shortly after, often feeling set up to fail rather than supported to succeed. The goals outlined in PIPs can also be frustratingly vague, leaving employees confused about what’s actually expected of them. No wonder social media is flooded with young professionals looking for advice on what to do if placed on a PIP. 

Despite this negative perception, PIPs are on the rise. If you are (un)lucky enough to work at a company that still uses some form of Jack Welch’s controversial vitality curve, PIPs may be automatically handed to the bottom 10% of employees every year. More often, they’re the result of cost-cutting measures. Companies are looking for ways to manage workforce reductions without going through formal layoffs, and PIPs provide a way to create a paper trail that can protect them from wrongful termination lawsuits. There’s also a growing pressure to demonstrate exceptional performance, especially in competitive industries. Many managers feel compelled to quickly identify and remove underperformers, particularly after the pandemic, when many organizations reassessed their workforce capabilities.

So, what are the alternatives to PIPs? Some companies are shifting toward a model of ongoing feedback, where managers and employees engage in continuous conversations about performance. This approach fosters a more supportive environment, allowing issues to be addressed in real-time rather than waiting for a formal review. Setting clear expectations from the get-go also helps prevent misunderstandings that can lead to PIPs in the first place. Sometimes, companies offer generous severance packages instead of going through the PIP process, allowing employees to exit gracefully when things aren’t working out.

If you find yourself on a PIP (and want to try to save your job), taking proactive steps is important. Start by documenting everything related to the PIP—keep notes on your conversations, goals, and any feedback you receive. Don’t hesitate to ask for clarification on vague goals; engaging in constructive dialogue with your manager can help clear up confusion. 

Considering that only 10% to 25% of employees who get put on PIPs survive the process, many people see a PIP as a precursor to termination and start job hunting before they’re officially let go. One commenter on Reddit referred to PIP as a “Paid Interview Period.” 

Some employees opt to file for a leave of absence, which will pause the clock the PIP and give them time to regroup and look for new positions without the immediate pressure of a performance evaluation looming over them.

My advice for those who have received a PIP? Give your friendly recruiter a call. 🙂

AI Insights

1. OpenAI has hired its first CMO: The $157 billion company, which has shown little interest in strategic marketing to date, has hired Kate Rouch, formerly of Meta and Coinbase. At Meta, Rouch helped scale the consumer marketing team from 3 to 900 people, and the use base from 500 million to 3 billion people. 

2. Amazon to pilot AI-designed carbon removal filter: The material, developed in partnerships with Orbital Materials, is intended for use in data centers to combat the worsening emissions from the AI systems they power. 

3. Meta is planning to build a subsea cable spanning the world: Planned for 2025, the fiber-optic subsea cable would be 40,000+km, cost over $10 billion, and be solely owned and used by Meta. It’s a brave move, considering that unfriendly states see undersea cables as legitimate targets. 

The Supply Aside

📕 Read - Citizen by Bill Clinton

I have been an avid reader of post-presidential biographies. My earliest recollection of reading these were as a teenager when I got my hands on some Richard Nixon books. And no, I wasn’t around during his presidency. For some reason, understanding what a former president does after they leave office is always interesting. Lyndon B. Johnson retired to his ranch, grew his hair long, and chainsmoked himself into an early heart attack only four years after his term ended. Nixon attempted to rehabilitate his image through writing and diplomacy. Jimmy Carter was arguably much more impactful as a private citizen than he ever was as president. But what about Bill Clinton? Well, his first book after leaving office was an informative read called ‘My Life.’ 

Just out and already a NY Times Bestseller, Citizen is Clinton’s memoir of his life from the day after his presidency ended to today. It covers his insights into key events, including 9/11, the Haiti earthquake, and his frustration over Hillary’s loss in 2016. Clinton also weighs in on the pandemic, income inequality in the U.S., global warming, and the authoritarian threat to democracy. And, yes, he does mention a certain intern he crossed paths with while in office.   

What Else I’m Reading

• China is Poaching Semiconductor Talent From the West: Chinese companies are offering to triple the salaries of tech talent from parts of Europe, Taiwan, and the Silicon Valley, in an apparent bid to access semiconductor secrets that are otherwise denied through trade barriers. 

• Connecticut Couple’s $1 Million Lululemon Crime Spree: The couple have both been charged with felony theft after stealing approximately $1 million of athleisure goods across five Lululemon stores. The couple worked together to distract employees or block security cameras. 

• New AI Tool Will Flag If Someone Is Dominating A Meeting: One of my favorite quotes from Quiet author Susan Cain is “There's zero correlation between being the best talker and having the best ideas.” Yet we’ve all experienced that one loud talker who dominates the room. Now, AI tools are available to nudge attendees during a meeting if someone is talking too much, while AI transcriptions can ensure quieter voices are recorded and reflected on later. This is great news for inclusivity.

📺 Watch - Huberman Lab: Control Your Inner Voice

Some people struggle with an overwhelming inner voice. Others don’t have an inner voice at all. Dr. Ethan Kross joins Huberman to discuss the purpose of the inner voice in your head and how to rescript your inner dialogue to be self-encouraging. Repressing your inner voice isn’t the answer, but nor is letting it out by venting to others. Kross explores practical tools to manage negative internal chatter and eliminate intrusive thoughts, through music, exercise, mental distancing techniques, and expressive writing.  

👂 Listen - Morning Brew Daily

I’ve been a long-time subscriber to Morning Brew so it was exciting to see they have a podcast - and it didn’t disappoint. Hosts Neal and Toby discussed the exit of Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger, TikTok’s surprising performance in the e-commerce space, and the US Supreme Court’s investigation into whether the FDA has been wrongfully denying applications for approval for vape products. 

💡 Think - To The Moon

As a crypto enthusiast, seeing Bitcoin crack the $100K mark feels monumental. Let that sink in: from being dismissed as outlaw money to becoming a six-figure asset embraced by BlackRock, ETFs, and even political backing, Bitcoin’s journey is nothing short of extraordinary. 

Fifteen years ago, it was worth a nickel. Today, it’s redefining legitimacy.

But here’s the thing—this isn’t the finish line; it’s just another marker on the road. Bitcoin’s resilience through scandals like FTX and its climb back from the “crypto winter” shows one thing: disruption doesn’t die. Usually.

With a pro-crypto administration stepping in and Wall Street heavyweights taking notice, the question isn’t whether Bitcoin belongs—it’s how high it can go. If this moment teaches us anything, it’s this: underestimate innovation at your own risk.

📕 Be sure to check out my book: Fire the Boss, Keep the Love: 10 Jobs, 10 Exits, 10 Lessons.

Whether you're starting your career or a seasoned pro, this book offers fresh perspectives and actionable advice to help you level up. I delve into my own personal career story and career wisdom from top executives to explore topics including:

• Career transition strategies

• Building lasting professional relationships

• Tips for thriving in diverse corporate cultures

Fire the Boss, Keep the Love is a must-read for anyone ready to take charge of their career journey and forge an authentic path to success. Get your copy on Amazon!

💡 Course: Craft Your Career!

As the world of work continues to evolve rapidly, with a more globalized labor market and many companies reducing headcount, the risk of getting left behind is higher than ever.

Throw in the rapid adoption of AI in the workplace and the rise of remote work, and even the most competent and hardworking leaders and professionals are struggling to keep up.

In Craft Your Career, Aaron Cleavinger and I teach you the skills you need to stay ahead of the curve and craft the career you deserve. Check it out here and enroll:  http://craftyourcareer.com/

Charts of the Week

Quote of the Week

Tweet of the Week

The Final Chuckle

Thanks so much for reading. I’d love to know what you think about this issue and how I can make it more useful to you.

If you have suggestions or topics you want to see me address, email me at [email protected]!

Want more?

If you’d like to read more of my writing on the supply chain, entrepreneurship, or the future of work, check out my website.

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Happy reading this weekend!

-- Naseem