Hello again, dear subscribers!!

Happy 4th of July! And to my British readers (you know who you are), my commiserations for the loss of your greatest colony 🎆 

Houston, we have a disengagement problem. With only 33% of US and Canadian workers considering themselves “engaged” at work, this challenge has moved well beyond an HR problem. It’s having real, tangible impacts on our bottom lines and global competitiveness. Stay tuned for a deep dive into the key findings from Gallup’s latest State of the Global Workplace report. 

That’s not all. This issue features a summary of the warnings from Leopold Aschenbrenner’s massive essay on the future of AI, along with recommendations for the week's podcasts, books, shows, charts, and tweets, followed by a final chuckle.

Does that sound engaging? Let’s get going. 

The Future of Work: The $8.9 Trillion Disengagement

The findings in the latest Gallup State of the Global Workplace report for 2024 make for some interesting reading when it comes to the state of affairs for employees in the United States and Canada. The data paints a picture of a region where far too many workers are struggling with their mental health and overall wellbeing - and it's having implications for organizational performance, productivity, and competitiveness. Gallup estimates that low employee engagement costs the global economy US$8.9 trillion, or 9% of global GDP.

Let's start with the headline engagement numbers. According to Gallup's research, only 33% of employees in the US and Canada are considered "engaged" at work. That's up slightly from the prior year and is higher than other economies, but it’s dwarfed by the number of people who say they are not engaged (51%). 

The disengagement figures are more alarming. 16% of workers in the US and Canada are classified as "actively disengaged," - meaning they are essentially organizational saboteurs, actively undermining the work of their more engaged colleagues through their negativity and discontent. This level of active disengagement is higher than the global average of 15%.

When you unpack the drivers behind these concerning engagement trends, the mental health challenges facing the North American workforce come into sharp focus. The Gallup data shows that nearly 1 in 2 workers in the US and Canada (49%) report experiencing “a lot” of stress daily. That's well above the international average of 41% and makes our region the world’s second-highest region for stressed employees (after the Middle East/North Africa). Women are significantly more stressed than men, young people are more stressed than older workers, and managers are slightly more stressed than other employees.

It was interesting to see the results split out by work location across several categories. As you can see above, there’s barely any difference in stress levels between fully remote, hybrid, and on-site workers.  

Engagement drops for office-based workers (36% fully remote, 35% hybrid, 29% on-site), while hybrid workers are most likely to evaluate their lives as “thriving”. On-site workers are 3% more likely to experience daily anger than remote and hybrid colleagues (no surprises there), but fully remote workers are only 1% lonelier than hybrid workers. I found this particularly interesting, especially after exploring the loneliness epidemic in depth back in Issue #57. Oh, and exclusively remote workers are less positive about the job climate, too. 

While discussing the job climate, 59% of US & Canadian workers think it’s a good time to find a job. This is higher than the global average of 54%, but it’s notable that this figure has plummeted 11% in 12 months since the last survey.

The report also confirms things we already knew, such as younger people being way more likely to intend to leave their jobs (at 60%) than older workers (43%). 

The good news is that the path forward is clear. The report highlights several evidence-based strategies leading employers use to create thriving, high-engagement workplaces. These include cultivating people-centric management practices, offering robust mental health benefits, fostering a sense of purpose, and empowering employees to manage their own wellbeing, but the headline finding is this: 

70% of the variance in team engagement can be attributed to the manager. When managers are engaged at work, non-managers are also more likely to be engaged.

That’s huge. Engage your managers, and employee engagement will follow. 

The size of the prize is impressive: we’re talking a 78% drop in absenteeism, a 21% to 51% plunge in turnover, a 23% jump in profitability, 68% improvement in wellbeing, and a 10% surge in customer loyalty and engagement.

The stakes couldn't be higher. If the US and Canada rise to the challenge, the rewards will be immense - not just in terms of organizational performance but also in improved public health and a more sustainable economic future. But whether business leaders have the courage and foresight to make the necessary changes remains to be seen. The Gallup report has laid bare the problem in stark terms. Now, the hard work of implementing solutions begins.

A shout-out to Eryn Peters who explored Gallup’s report in her excellent newsletter, The Weekly Workforce.

AI Insights: On the Cusp of “Alien” Superintelligence

A tip of the hat to Katelyn Donnelly and her newsletter Declarative Statements for bringing a great long read on AI to my attention. 

Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead is a long set of essays on AI by Leopold Aschenbrenner, an OpenAI engineer.  

“What really keeps me up at night is the intelligence explosion. Aligning the first AGIs, the first somewhat-superhuman systems, is one thing. Vastly superhuman, alien superintelligence is a new ballgame, and it is a scary ballgame. The intelligence explosion will be more like running a war than launching a product. … By default, we’ll probably stumble into the intelligence explosion before people even realize what we’ve gotten into. We’re counting way too much on luck here.”

As I read through this report, I couldn’t help but feel a growing sense of both anticipation and unease. Aschenbrenner paints a remarkably vivid picture of the tidal wave of progress that will crash over us all.

According to his analysis, we are hurtling towards achieving artificial general intelligence, or AGI, by as soon as 2027. That's just 3 years away, which is a shock when we’re so used to futurists talking in 20-year horizons. The exponential improvements we've seen in large language models like GPT-4 are merely the tip of the iceberg.

Aschenbrenner explains that if we extend the trends in compute power, algorithmic efficiency, and the transition from narrow chatbots to more general intelligent agents, we're on the cusp of a qualitative leap that will catapult AI systems far beyond human-level abilities. We’re talking about an ‘alien’ superintelligence way beyond our capacity to understand, let alone control. 

And this isn't just idle speculation. Aschenbrenner tells us that the AI labs and tech giants of Silicon Valley are in a frantic scramble to build the infrastructure required to support this AGI revolution. Billions, even trillions, of dollars are pouring into expanding electricity production, GPU manufacturing, and data center construction. American industry is mobilizing on a scale not seen since the Second World War.

But this race for AGI supremacy also comes with grave risks, as Aschenbrenner is quick to point out. The key secrets and "weights" of these transformative AI systems must be locked down tightly, lest they fall into the hands of competitors like China. And even if we can secure the technology, reliably controlling superintelligent AI systems that far surpass human capabilities is an enormous challenge we have yet to solve.

Aschenbrenner warns that if we get this wrong, the consequences could be catastrophic - a true existential threat to our civilization. The author seems to believe we are truly at a pivotal juncture, where the free world's very survival may hang in the balance of this AI arms race.

It's a lot to take in, I know. But as unsettling as parts of this report are, I can't help but feel a sense of awe at the sheer scale of the technological transformation that appears to be barreling toward us. The coming years are going to be wild, to say the least. We'd better start preparing because, ready or not, the future of artificial intelligence is about to arrive.

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The Supply Aside

📕 Read - Founder Vs Investor: The Honest Truth About Venture Capital

This book, written by Founder Elizabeth Zalman and Investor Jerry Neumann (pictured), explores the “pure chaos” suffered by most startups due to the vastly different motivations and expectations between founders and VCs. It’s a unique but tenuous relationship that, more often than not, ends up in fundraising disasters, boardroom coups, shattered dreams, and lost fortunes. A highly entertaining read, packed not only with plenty of disaster stories but also lots of advice on how to make this crucial relationship work. After all, Zalman and Neumann were able to collaborate long enough to write a book together, right?

What Else I’m Reading

• Southwest is under siege by Elliot Investment Management, one of America’s best-known activist investors, which has amassed a $1.9 billion stake (11% interest) in the airline. Elliott demands Southwest dump its CEO, overhaul the board, and shake up its business model.

• AI for schools: The FT has added more content to its excellent series on AI. After decades of technology impacting blue-collar roles, Gen AI is shaking up highly skilled white-collar roles. How can educators adapt? 

• Greg Peters and the Netflix password sharing challenge: An insider look into how Netflix dealt with its password-sharing problem, the fierce internal debate around pay per home vs pay per user, and the rise of Netflix CEO Greg Peters to become one of the world’s most powerful media executives. 

📺 Watch - Dark Matter

“Behind every door in that box is a version of your life you could have lived…”

This is a cool premise. Jason 1 (Joel Edgerton) is drugged, kidnapped and warped into a parallel dimension by Jason 2 (also Edgerton), a prominent physics genius who apparently wants to enjoy a quieter family life. Dark Matter follows two storylines: a Ripley-like tale of Jason 2 trying to avoid being unmasked as an imposter in his new life, and Jason 1 slowly coming to understand what has happened to him and journeying through a series of parallel universes to get home to his family. Based on a novel by Blake Crouch, who also wrote the series.

👂 Listen -  Invest Like the Best

This episode of Invest Like the Best features Elizabeth Zalman and Jerry Neumann, who chat about their contentious book Founder vs Investor (see above). They pinpoint the specific moments of greatest tension in a start-up’s life and explain the friction that inevitably appears. I found it interesting to hear about the strong reaction to the book, learning why they believe the fundraising model is broken, and their best practices for founders and VCs. 

💡 Think - Big Brother Cometh..Again

Did you hear about the Wells Fargo employees that were fired for pretending to work? True story. A dozen Bank workers were recently shown the door for giving the 'impression of active work.' It reminds me of the old joke: I pretend to work, and they pretend to pay me. 

It's no longer a laughing matter but a sign of the times. In this digital age, faking being busy is getting tougher. Remote workers have been using mouse jigglers and other tricks to look active while they handle personal errands, but companies are catching on fast. 

With nearly 50% of companies using electronic surveillance, digital busywork isn't as undetectable as we may think. Tools like Teramind and Hubstaff use machine learning to spot artificial activity. If employees resort to these measures, it might indicate that their workplace values busyness over actual productivity. It may be time we rethink what really matters at work. Engagement, anyone?

📕 From my upcoming book…

The following is a short excerpt from my upcoming book, Fire the Boss, Keep the Love: 10 Jobs, 10 Exits, 10 Lessons. The release date is coming soon!

“Starting at RailMarketplace as a Strategic Sourcing Manager felt like jumping onto a moving train. This greenfield startup was my bridge between the established might of major railroads and the fresh, vibrant energy of a new venture. The Board, a jigsaw puzzle of procurement VPs from each railroad company, had differing agendas.

The larger railroads often had more influence, sometimes leaving the smaller ones feeling sidelined. The company's vision could have been clearer and more fluid, which added to our challenges and left us feeling rudderless. Despite all this, my boss and I found our silver lining: the freedom to build the company our way.”

Charts of the Week

Quote of the Week

Tweet of the Week

The Final Chuckle

Thanks so much for reading. I’d love to know what you think about this issue and how I can make it more useful to you.

If you have suggestions or topics you want to see me address, email me at [email protected]!

Want more?

If you’d like to read more of my writing on the supply chain, entrepreneurship, or the future of work, check out my website.

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Happy reading this weekend!

-- Naseem