Here Come The Generics

The Supply Times Issue #66

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Image: Bloomberg

Hello again, dear readers!

GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, it turns out, have enormous potential beyond weight loss. We’re seeing exciting results in wide-ranging areas, such as managing kidney disease, heart attacks, strokes, and even Alzheimers. There’s even more of a fortune to be made. Still, with Chinese competition heating up, patents expiring, and generics beginning to appear, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will no longer control the entire market. 

Also, I look into new research on why employees quit. Researchers have established four “Quests” that explain the motivations behind handing in a resignation letter. Understanding these can help employers shape better experiences that—possibly—will drive down attrition rates. 

This issue features the usual bunch of AI Insights and recommendations for the week's podcasts, books, shows, charts, and tweets, followed by a final chuckle. 

Let’s get going.

Industry Highlights: Beyond Weight Loss

The buzz around GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Zepbound is shifting—it's no longer just about weight loss. While these medications have proven incredibly effective for shedding pounds, emerging research highlights additional health benefits that are making waves. Studies suggest potential cardiovascular advantages, including a reduced risk of heart attacks and strokes. Moreover, there’s growing interest in how these drugs might help manage conditions like kidney disease and even Alzheimer’s. Recent findings also indicate that GLP-1 receptor agonists could assist in curbing addiction issues.

As research unfolds, it's becoming clear that GLP-1 drugs could play a much larger role in healthcare than initially anticipated.

Wegovy, a higher-dose formulation of semaglutide, has become a standout treatment for obesity, with studies showing an average weight loss of 15% to 20% over 68 weeks. Zepbound, which contains tirzepatide, is also gaining traction. Together, these drugs have propelled the market value of their manufacturers, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, from $560 billion to $1.3 trillion since 2021. The remarkable effectiveness of these drugs has led to soaring demand, with one in eight American adults having used GLP-1 drugs.

Innovations in drug delivery are becoming increasingly important. Currently, many of these medications require weekly injections, which can be a barrier for some patients. However, companies like Amgen are exploring options allowing monthly injections instead. Additionally, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are working on oral formulations, which are expected to launch by 2026. Pills would simplify administration, eliminate the need for cold storage, and potentially reduce production costs.

Competition and generics

Competition in the market is intensifying. Pharmaceutical companies are racing to develop their versions, and the prospect of generics is expanding.

As patents expire, generic versions of GLP-1 drugs are expected to enter markets like Brazil, China, and India. This could significantly lower prices, enhancing access to these important treatments. The introduction of generics could also spur further innovation, pushing established companies to improve their existing formulations. 

Pricing and accessibility

Pricing remains a critical issue when discussing GLP-1 drugs. Medications like Ozempic and Wegovy can cost up to $17,500 a year for those paying out of pocket, posing a significant barrier for many. While some insurance plans cover these costs, many do not, particularly for weight loss treatments. However, as evidence grows that GLP-1 drugs offer more than just cosmetic benefits, insurers and governments may start to reconsider their coverage policies. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that around 16 million patients could have access to these drugs through Medicare by 2026, given their new potential uses.

Global competitors

The excitement around GLP-1 drugs isn’t confined to the U.S. and Europe. With over two-fifths of the world overweight or obese, demand for these treatments is surging globally. China, where nearly half of all adults are overweight or obese, is emerging as a significant market. Both semaglutide and tirzepatide have been approved for obesity treatment in the country, with new products like Mazdutide expected to enter the market at lower prices. Indian pharmaceutical companies are also gearing up to produce generics, which will be crucial for widening access in developing countries.

The success of GLP-1 is dizzying, but important questions remain. Concerns about the long-term effects of these medications need to be thoroughly investigated, particularly given their expanding list of uses. As researchers continue to explore the full scope of GLP-1 drugs, understanding their long-term safety and efficacy will be crucial. The potential benefits are exciting, but ongoing studies will be essential in ensuring that these treatments can provide lasting health improvements without unforeseen consequences.

The Future of Work: The Four Quests of Job Quitters

 Lasting nearly 800 years, the Spanish Reconquista is recognized by historians as the longest-lasting war in recorded history. 

Sometimes, it feels like the “War for Talent” will break this record. Employers have been fighting this battle for so long that it seems crazy that so many organizations refuse to adjust their strategies or act on new hiring insights when they emerge. 

This is the point made by the authors of an HBR article titled Why Employees Quit, who argue that understanding why people leave their jobs is more important than ever. Ethan Bernstein, Michael B. Horn, and Bob Moesta, the authors of Job Moves: 9 Steps for Making Progress in Your Career (HarperCollins, 2024), have studied this phenomenon for over 15 years. 

As they write: “Trying to retain employees without understanding what motivates them is like grabbing the wrong screwdriver from your toolbox.” If you want to keep your talented people around, you need to know what makes them tick.

Bernstein, Horn, and Moesta have consistently found that employees who quit their jobs “do so because they aren’t making the progress they seek in their careers and lives … By supporting people in their personal quests for progress—in ways that meet the organization’s needs—managers can create employee experiences that are mutually beneficial.” 

Their research uncovers four key “quests” that drive employees to seek new opportunities. 

The Four Quests

1. Get Out

First up, we have the "Get Out" quest. Think of this as the classic fight-or-flight response. This group's employees feel overwhelmed, frustrated, or just plain stuck. They might be dealing with a toxic workplace, a bad job fit, or other obstacles that make their work life unbearable. Their primary motivation? Finding a new job that feels like a breath of fresh air.

2. Regain Control

Next is the "Regain Control" quest. People in this category often feel bored or overwhelmed at work but aren’t necessarily unhappy overall. They want more predictability and flexibility in their roles. Instead of rushing for the exit, they’re looking for a job that gives them a say in how and when they work. They’re searching for something that fits better with their lifestyle and personal needs.

3. Regain Alignment

The third quest is "Regain Alignment." This is all about feeling undervalued. Employees on this quest often feel that their skills and contributions aren’t getting the recognition they deserve. They’re searching for a workplace where they can truly shine and be appreciated. For them, it’s all about finding a role that aligns with their capabilities and passions.

4. Take the Next Step

Finally, we have the "Take the Next Step" quest. This group is often at a transitional point in their lives—maybe they’ve just graduated, completed a big project, or their kids have moved out. They’re ready to advance in their careers, usually seeking more responsibility or better benefits. Unlike the other quests, these folks are driven by growth and opportunity rather than frustration.

So, what does this mean for employers? By understanding these four quests, you can create a work environment that better meets your employees' needs. Tailoring roles and experiences to align with individual aspirations can lead to a more engaged and satisfied workforce.

For job seekers, being aware of which quest resonates with you can guide your job search. The authors even provide tools to help you identify your motivations, making finding a role that feels right for you easier.

We know that exit interviews are not particularly effective, mainly because job-quitters are usually wary of burning bridges. Recognizing these four quests—Get Out, Regain Control, Regain Alignment, and Take the Next Step—can help reveal why people change jobs. Whether you’re an employer looking to retain talent or a candidate navigating your career path, understanding these motivations can lead to better decisions and more fulfilling work experiences.

Savvy Investors Know Where to Get Their News—Do You?

Here’s the truth: there is no magic formula when it comes to building wealth.

Much of the mainstream financial media is designed to drive traffic, not good decision-making. Whether it’s disingenuous headlines or relentless scare tactics used to generate clicks, modern business news was not built to serve individual investors.

Luckily, we have The Daily Upside. Created by Wall Street insiders and bankers, this fresh, insightful newsletter delivers valuable insights that go beyond the headlines.

And the best part? It’s completely free. Join 1M+ readers and subscribe today.

AI Insights

  1. LinkedIn launches AI recruiter agent: LinkedIn has deployed an AI agent known as Hiring Assistant to read job descriptions and match them with suggested candidates, potentially saving a great deal of search time for recruiters. Let’s hope it doesn’t lead to a new wave of keyword stuffing.  

  2. Medical Imaging processing just got a lot more efficient: A UCLA researcher has developed an advanced deep learning AI framework called SLIViT that can analyze 3D medical images with precision and speed. 

  3. Apple launches the Mac Mini: At only 5x5 inches, the Mini features the M4 chip and is built for “Apple Intelligence”.

The Supply Aside

Gladwell is back. The author of Outliers and Blink dives into the dark side of social engineering by returning to the topic of The Tipping Point: “That magic moment when an idea, trend or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire.” Gladwell offers his alternative history on the two biggest epidemics of modern America: COVID and the opioid epidemic. 

What Else I’m Reading

  • The rise of the Happy Warrior: Have you seen this phrase used on LinkedIn lately? A Happy Warrior is a “perpetually upbeat” worker who wants to signal to their boss that they haven’t fallen prey (like so many) to burnout and negativity. 

  • Starbucks moves to arrest declining sales: New CEO Brian Niccol has simplified the coffee chain’s “overly complex menu” and is bringing back the humble sharpie in an attempt to win back customers with a back-to-basic approach. 

  • 83% of global CEOs expect a return to full-time office work within three years: Return-to-office mandates irritate staff and can lead to resignations, but advocates argue office-based work is better for managing complex tasks, team culture, and for coaching junior employees.

The trailer for Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery teases the possibility of unmasking Bitcoin’s vanished inventor, Satoshi Nakamoto. Spoiler: they don’t. But this documentary still has plenty of fascinating insights about the origin of Bitcoin and interviews with the original team who made it a financial reality. The documentary has a conspiracy-theory vibe to it, which is no surprise given that filmmaker Cullen Hoback is best-known for his investigation into QAnon. 

👂 Listen - AI For Humans Podcast

I’ve recently enjoyed listening to the AI For Humans podcast, hosted by digital media veterans Gavin Purcell and Kevin Pereira. They do a great job of demystifying the latest AI tech and showcasing new tools each episode with demos and practical tips. This episode features Claude Sonnet 3.5, O1, Runway’s New Act One, Ideogram’s Canvas and Unitree’s Robots. 

💡 Think - Our Voice, Our Vote

With the general election approaching, I've been reflecting on the importance of civic engagement. I've lived in a country where voting rights were denied to certain minorities, so I don't take this fundamental right for granted. 

In our fast-paced supply chain world, it's easy to get caught up in daily operations and forget about our role as citizens. We're all too familiar with how even the smallest actions can create ripple effects, shifting outcomes across the entire network. 

So here's the thing: voting isn't just a right—it's how we shape the policies that affect our industry, communities, and daily lives. Whether it's trade policies, infrastructure investments, or labor regulations, these decisions impact our work in big and small ways.

I'm often struck by how many people sit out elections, thinking their vote won't matter. Yet history shows that close elections can pivot on just a few thousand votes. So here's my take: regardless of where you stand on the issues, make sure your voice is heard—democracy works best when we all participate.

📕 Be sure to check out my book: Fire the Boss, Keep the Love: 10 Jobs, 10 Exits, 10 Lessons.

Whether you're starting your career or a seasoned pro, this book offers fresh perspectives and actionable advice to help you level up. I delve into my own personal career story and career wisdom from top executives to explore topics including:

  • Career transition strategies

  • Building lasting professional relationships

  • Tips for thriving in diverse corporate cultures

Fire the Boss, Keep the Love is a must-read for anyone ready to take charge of their career journey and forge an authentic path to success. Get your copy on Amazon!

💡 Course: Craft Your Career!

As the world of work continues to evolve rapidly, with a more globalized labor market and many companies reducing headcount, the risk of getting left behind is higher than ever.

Throw in the rapid adoption of AI in the workplace and the rise of remote work, and even the most competent and hardworking leaders and professionals are struggling to keep up.

In Craft Your Career, Aaron Cleavinger and I teach you the skills you need to stay ahead of the curve and craft the career you deserve. Check it out here and enroll:  http://craftyourcareer.com/

Charts of the Week

Samsung’s share in the global smartphone market drops to 18% in Q3 from 21% a year ago. 

Quote of the Week

"In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert’s mind there are few."

— Shunryū Suzuki.

Tweet of the Week

The Final Chuckle

Thanks so much for reading. I’d love to know what you think about this issue and how I can make it more useful to you.

If you have suggestions or topics you want to see me address, email me at [email protected]!

Want more?

If you’d like to read more of my writing on the supply chain, entrepreneurship, or the future of work, check out my website.

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Happy reading this weekend!

-- Naseem