Hamstrung Huawei Soars Higher

The Supply Times Issue #60

Hello again, dear readers!

Both Biden and Trump have positioned Made in America as a central tenet of their presidencies and campaigns. The argument is that homegrown products will make our companies - and the wider economy - bigger, stronger, more resilient, and protect our nation from expensive supply shocks. But where should we look for an inspirational example of this happening in practice? I’m going to be controversial here and nominate everyone’s favorite digital bogeyman - Huawei. The Chinese tech giant has survived everything the US has thrown at it, launched a Made-in-China turnaround, and come roaring back with profits surging 564% year-on-year in 2023. Find out more below. 

Also, we’ve been doing the whole hybrid working thing for years now - are we any closer to getting it right? How many days a week should employees commute to the office? How do we manage scheduling, safeguard culture, and maintain productivity? Read on for insights from the experts. 

This issue features AI Insights and recommendations for the week's podcasts, books, shows, charts, and tweets, followed by a final chuckle.

Let’s get going. 

Image: ChinaDaily

Industry Highlights: Huawei is bigger and stronger than ever

Necessity, they say, is the mother of invention. 

Ever since the US government banned American companies and foreign partners from selling chips and crucial software to  Huawei back in 2019, the Chinese telecom giant has been forced to get creative and build in-house replacements from the ground up. It's been a game of survival - but one that's transformed Huawei into a far more innovative and self-reliant tech powerhouse. 

Huawei’s sales last year were about $100 billion, $23 billion of which have been invested into its massive R&D budget. Over half of Huawei’s employees work in R&D. What have they been doing? Mainly, they’ve been replacing 13,000 foreign-made parts with Chinese ones in an effort to become self-reliant.

Stung by American sanctions, the company has diversified fast. Take their new enterprise resource planning system, named MetaERP. Huawei had to build this core business software from the ground up after losing access to Oracle's offerings. As one Huawei exec proclaimed at the launch, they've "broken through the blockade".

But the real headache has been Huawei's smartphone business. Losing access to Google's Android operating system was a huge blow, turning their once-dominant phones into virtual bricks outside of China. So Huawei kicked into high gear with Harmony, their homegrown OS. Originally built for their watches and gadgets, they've now integrated it into their smartphones as well. The current version still uses some open-source Android code, but the next iteration will be 100% Huawei.

Getting Harmony off the ground has been crucial. Huawei claims it already has 700 million users and 2.2 million developers - an impressive software ecosystem they've built from scratch. It's their path to creating a true rival to Android and iOS.

In the first three months of 2024, Huawei had a 15.5% share of smartphone sales in China (population 1.4 billion, 72% of whom have a smartphone), up from about 9% during the same period in 2023. This puts them on par with Apple.

Huawei hasn't stopped there. US sanctions have also pushed them to look beyond just phones and networking gear. They're now making major plays in enterprise software, cloud services, and advanced AI chips. One Argentine media company has already ditched expensive Oracle databases in favor of Huawei's Gauss offering. And a Chinese AI firm is now running its models entirely on Huawei's homemade AI chips - the first fully indigenous AI system in China.

Huawei is now selling “AI-in-a-box”, or on-premise generative AI to private cloud set-ups, which account for nearly 50% of China’s cloud market in a move that threatens big tech’s cloud growth strategies

The Chinese government has enthusiastically backed Huawei through all this, showering the company with subsidies and investments to bolster the domestic semiconductor industry. But unlike lumbering state-owned enterprises, Huawei's nimble approach has allowed it to outpace other Chinese firms.

So while US policymakers were likely hoping the sanctions would hobble Huawei, the opposite has happened. The gradual rollout of restrictions gave the company time to reshore, and the barriers have only intensified their innovative drive.

What was once a major headache for the US is now an even bigger concern. Huawei has transformed itself from a hardware-focused tech giant into a formidable, self-sufficient software and services powerhouse - one that may soon emerge as a serious challenger to Western digital dominance.

Necessity truly has become the mother of invention for Huawei. By being forced to reinvent itself, the company has only gotten stronger, more resilient, and more dangerous to its American rivals.

The Future of Work: What we’ve learned about hybrid working

Four years since the pandemic kicked remote work into the mainstream, it's clear that hybrid work arrangements are here to stay, even though some organizations are still trying to bring employees back to the office full-time. Plenty of managers are still struggling with implementing this new work model effectively. 

Writing for HBR, University of Oklahoma’s Mark C. Bolino explored the three key issues they're facing, beginning with the perennial pain of scheduling. 

Scheduling: Many companies have settled on a schedule of, say, Tuesday to Thursday in the office and Monday and Friday at home. But employees are showing up at the office just briefly and then taking off, a trend known as coffee badging. Managers are also frustrated when employees use their in-office days for things like medical appointments or leave, leaving even less time for actual face-to-face collaboration.

The solution? Instead of focusing on how often people should be in the office, shift the focus to when that physical presence is most important. For new hires getting onboarded, or during busy periods when teamwork is crucial, mandate in-person attendance. But be clear about the reasoning - if employees understand why it matters, they're more likely to cooperate. Don’t be that person who schedules an in-office meeting for something that could have been communicated in an email. 

As reported in WSJ, two senior research fellows at Claremont Graduate University believe they have discovered a sweet spot using what they call the “Drucker rankings”:

“It appears that the companies scoring well in the Drucker rankings have discovered a sweet spot [2-3 days in the office, 2-3 days at home] demanding enough in-office time to ensure that employees have a chance to interact spontaneously with colleagues, brainstorm as a group and get exposure to more senior leaders but offering enough flexibility to attract people who don’t want to schlep in five days a week.”

Culture: Leaders worry about maintaining company culture when people are together less often. Managers report that even when the team is in the office, they still meet virtually instead of face-to-face. And people seem eager to bolt as soon as the workday ends, skipping out on social events.

Rather than just encouraging people to come in to boost culture, try appealing to their motivation to help others. Research shows that's more effective than emphasizing benefits to the company or themselves. Explain how their presence can support coworkers, customers, or clients. And create opportunities for them to interact directly with the people impacted by their work.

But what about those managers who have roundly rejected the entire concept of remote working? According to Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom, this could be a red flag in terms of company performance. When he sees a company implementing an aggressive ROT (return-to-office order), “Blooms takes it they may well be in serious trouble and the CEO is trying to cast the blame on employees for working from home. It’s a sign to sell the stock.”

Productivity: The folks running the Drucker ratings found that organizations with more remote working are smashing it out of the park in terms of employee effectiveness, innovation, and engagement. 

Image: WSJ

The key to success is accepting that managing a hybrid workforce is more challenging. In my experience, the number one barrier to embracing remote work isn’t a concern about productivity, culture, or scheduling - it’s the manager’s fear of giving up control. 

Managers need to learn new skills - focusing on deliverables rather than hours, providing transparent feedback and support, and resisting the urge to assume remote workers are shirking. And organizations should free up more manager time for interpersonal aspects of the job and provide training on managing remote teams.

Hybrid work is here to stay, and while it presents some challenges, the solution isn't to force a return to the old way of doing things. It's about reimagining policies and practices to attract, motivate, and retain employees in this new landscape.

AI Insights

  • Working It’s Guide To AI: I wish more podcast hosts would do this. The Working It crew has taken the insights and learnings from several guests who chatted about AI and presented a helpful list of the ways AI can help us in our jobs. 

  • Whistleblowers File Complaint About OpenAI’s NDAs: This story is only just emerging as I write this addition, so it’s worth keeping an eye on for developments. OpenAI appears to have trampled all over whistleblower’s legally-protected rights with their NDAs, which is why the Securities and Exchange Commission is now involved. 

  • Nvidia Chips Are Making Their Way To China Despite Bans: Smugglers will always find a way. Chinese companies are getting their hands on powerful Nvidia chips through a network of distributors, intermediaries, and even traveling students who are happy to make a little extra money by carrying chips in their backpacks.

The Supply Aside

Ray Kurzweil has published a sequel to his groundbreaking 2005 book, The Singularity Is Near, where he reassesses his prediction of humans merging with AI by 2029. Kurzweil explores some truly fascinating topics, from a Black Mirror-style digital afterlife, nanobots rebuilding the world, radical life extension beyond 120, AI’s potential to end poverty and crime, and the “merge” itself, which essentially means connecting our brains to the Cloud. 

What Else I’m Reading

  • Airbus continues to slash costs: Airbus has announced a cost savings plan to keep rising supply chain costs in check. The move follows a freeze on headcount at its planemaking subsidiary and the paring back of growth plans and production rates. 

  • Harley Davidson riders are getting older: The average age of a Harley rider has climbed steadily from 35 in 1990 to 49 today, and it’s no accident. Harley Davidson no longer produces entry-level (affordable) bikes, concentrating instead on high-end, premium rides. Focusing on the Boomer market paid off in the short term, but are any young people buying a Harley? 

  • Global shipping prices are soaring (again): Supply chains are still under strain, due to Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, drought impacting the Panama Canal, and strikes in the US, Canada, and Germany. With the peak shipping season approaching, things are about to get expensive for US consumers.

📺 Watch - Startup

There’s something very “Florida” about Startup - a wild ride that begins when a Cuban-American hacker invents an untraceable digital currency and teams up with a desperate banker and a Haitian-American gang lord (brilliantly played by Edi Gathegi) to make it a success. Season one features British actor Martin Freeman as a corrupt cop, while season two stars Ron Perlman as an investor who provides the financial backing and island retreat for the fledgling tech company that soon drifts into the world of organized, and digitized, crime. 

Instead of the usual business leader, HBR IdeaCast interviewed music legend Darius Rucker of Hootie & the Blowfish fame to learn his secret to reinvention. Rucker has not only reinvented his musical style by launching a Country music career, but has had to adapt to a vastly different music industry landscape that is a world apart from what he was used to in the 1990s. Some great lessons here on how to ignore the critics and go your own way. 

💡 Think - Something big is about to happen in the Biden camp

Anyone who knows me knows that I take a keen interest in politics, and the elections here in the US have been anything but dull. With one candidate escaping an assassination and the other on a political death watch, it's hard to keep up with the twists and turns. While one party is all but planning Cabinet members, the other is preparing an open convention to select a new nominee. I subscribe to a fantastic newsletter called Wide World of News that's run by the veteran political journalist Mark Halperin. This newsletter gives me access to the brightest minds from both sides of the political spectrum. They predict that this weekend will yield momentous news that will be a game-changer. You heard it here first. Unless, of course, you don't. 

📕 From my upcoming book…

The following is a short excerpt from my upcoming book, Fire the Boss, Keep the Love: 10 Jobs, 10 Exits, 10 Lessons. The release date is coming soon!

In the high-stakes world of business negotiations, one particular encounter stands out. I met with Simon Lu, the wealthy owner of one of our most crucial suppliers, based in Hong Kong. Simon claimed he couldn't speak English, which I doubted but had to work around. His right-hand woman, Mandy, acted as our translator.

The stakes were high. We had recently merged with another company and needed to renegotiate our pricing to match their lower rates. It wasn't just about cost savings; our corporate pride was on the line. As the bigger fish in this merger, being stuck with higher prices was embarrassing. Simon had always resisted changing our pricing structure before.

I made my pitch, emphasizing my role as the 'new sheriff in town' and my desire for a fresh start and a stronger partnership. The tension in the room was palpable as Simon considered my proposal, his gaze unwavering. When he finally agreed, it felt like a major victory—not just for the immediate double-digit savings but also for the promising future it would shape our future dealings.

This negotiation taught me the value of perseverance, cultural navigation, and the power of a well-timed proposal. It was a defining moment in my journey as a business leader, imparting lessons I still carry today.

Charts of the Week

How prepared a destination is to absorb tourism. (McKinsey)

China’s trade surplus soared to an all-time high in June, with a jump in exports overwhelming an unexpected decline in imports.

Startups are pouring capital into AI. Source: theinformation.com/

Quote of the Week

“True leaders empower others to achieve more than they might otherwise. They draw out the unique strengths of every team member.”

- Thomas F. Crum

Tweet of the Week

The Final Chuckle

Thanks so much for reading. I’d love to know what you think about this issue and how I can make it more useful to you.

If you have suggestions or topics you want to see me address, email me at [email protected]!

Want more?

If you’d like to read more of my writing on the supply chain, entrepreneurship, or the future of work, check out my website.

For timely updates, follow me on LinkedIn and Twitter!

Happy reading this weekend!

-- Naseem