Happy New Year, dear readers!

Welcome to the first issue of 2025! Around this time every year, some of America’s best journalists and economists publish their expectations for the 12 months ahead. From the obvious to the alarming, these forecasts provide a glimpse into the forces shaping our world, economic landscape, political dynamics, and the race for tech and AI dominance. Read on below for my summary of the top trends set to impact us all. 

Also, I was interested to discover a common thread in workplace trends: executives want their employees to stop fiddling around the edges of GenAI and start making some serious impact. Scroll down to discover what this might involve.

This issue features the usual bunch of AI Insights and recommendations for the week's podcasts, books, shows, charts, and tweets, followed by a final chuckle.

Let’s get going.

Industry Highlights:  2025 Trends to Watch

Let’s start with The Economist. The legendary Tom Standish has published ten trends to watch this year. His key prediction? 2025 will be crunch time for artificial intelligence. Companies are investing over $1 trillion into data centers for AI, but many are still figuring out how to effectively put these technologies into daily usage. Urgency may be up, but adoption is slow, and there's a palpable sense of uncertainty about whether this massive investment will pay off. This year could determine whether AI proves its worth or if investors begin to lose their nerve. 

Simultaneously, Standish points out that the economic landscape is shifting in the wake of inflation. While central bankers are celebrating inflation’s defeat, Western economies now face the challenge of reducing deficits, which may involve painful decisions like increasing taxes or cutting spending. 

Next: trade and Trump's protectionist policies. Standish predicts that ramping up tariffs will push Chinese firms to expand internationally to navigate these barriers. Instead of decoupling, we may see new global economic ties form in unexpected ways. 

This brings us to Ruchir Sharma’s article in the Financial Times. He predicts that Trump’s tariffs will stimulate a boom in trade … without the US. Last month, 31 nations agreed on plans for the world’s largest trade union which will link the EU with Latin America’s Mercosur group, which will cut tariffs by 90% among member states. Many countries are seeking new trade deals with their neighbours and moving to other currencies than the US dollar. As the chart below shows, most the 10 fastest-growing trade corridors do not include Uncle Sam:

Sharma also warns that AI mania may be getting ahead of itself, pointing to slower-than-anticipated adoption, questions about future regulation, and overspending on data centers and other AI infrastructure. He writes: “One of the biggest capital spending booms that America has seen since the Second World War may be great for the consumer, but could be the straw that finally breaks the supernormal profits of Big Tech companies.”

I’m always intrigued by the input from The Economist’s Editor-in-Chief, Zanny Minton Beddoes. Her crystal ball article for 2025 is firmly focused on what the Trump administration may or may not do. How much of what he said in 2024 was merely election bluster, and how much will evolve into reality? Beddoes expects hawkish foreign policy (Ukraine, Middle East, and China), tariffs (of course), significant tax cuts but nowhere near the trillions promised on the campaign trail, and a showy effort at mass deportations. Her final prediction struck me:

“With luck, the most consequential part of Mr Trump’s domestic agenda will lie ... in a programme to deregulate and reinvent the machinery of government. These reforms will determine how quickly America adopts and diffuses cutting-edge technologies including biotech and AI …. [the] idea that America needs government reform to maintain its lead in radical new technologies is surely right. If Mr Trump truly wants to make America great, this is where his administration should focus.”

The Future of Work: Time to Get Serious About AI Utilization

In her latest Working It update, Isabel Berwick highlights some intriguing trends we can expect in the workplace this year. 

Companies will push their workers to do more with AI. As I touch upon above, AI adoption is trailing way behind expectations, and way behind the hype. Slack reports that despite 76% of workers feeling an urgency to become an AI expert, adoption rates have only from from 32% to 33%, compared to an 8% increase a year ago. 

According to Slack, executives want workers to prioritize using AI for learning and skill-building, boosting innovation and creative work, and improving productivity on existing projects. The potential for transformative change is enormous, but the vast majority of adopters are merely fiddling with the likes of ChatGPT rather than taking the plunge and using AI to make a major impact. This raises the question: why aren’t young people more into AI? Why aren’t they seizing it the way they seized texting, YouTube and Tiktok?

Berwick gathered insights into AI adoption from four experts in the space. The common thread? Business leaders can do a lot more:

• Louise Ballard (Atheni.ai): Just using AI tools like ChatGPT for small tasks isn’t going to cut it anymore. The leaders who will thrive are the ones who encourage everyone to work with generative AI every day. It’s all about shifting mindsets and embracing a new way of working together.

• Azeem Azhar (Exponential View): In 2025, the real winners will be the managers who know how to juggle multiple AI systems with their teams. These savvy leaders will redefine what success looks like, helping their teams work faster and produce better results through smart collaboration.

• Erica Bourne (London Stock Exchange Group): Leaders in 2025 will need to balance focus, empathy, and inclusion. Understanding what workers need is key to managing diverse teams and fostering collaboration. Keeping those meaningful human connections alive will be crucial for healthy workplaces as we lean more on AI.

• Kevin Delaney (Charter): We’ll start to see how AI really changes our work experience. There are questions about whether AI tools make us less collaborative and if they affect job satisfaction—some studies suggest they might. The best leaders will need to tackle these challenges to keep team collaboration and employee happiness high.

Looking beyond AI trends,  UK academic Chris Rowley writes about the ongoing shift in personal work ethics, especially for younger workers. Expect to see more talk of “involution” (“neijuan” or “rolling inwards” in Chinese), wherein societies have reached a point where no matter how hard someone works, progress appears impossible. “It’s better not to bother too much, in this world view,” Rowley writes. In other words, we are witnessing a continuation - or perhaps an acceleration - of quiet quitting. More concerning still is the rise of NEETS. What are NEETS, you ask? Scroll down to find out. 

Finally, FT management editor Anjli Raval came out with a strong (and quite brave) statement pushing back against the “bringing your whole self to work” concept. “[This] is not entirely a good idea and we will hear much less about it in 2025”, she predicts. “… There’s a line between necessary transparency and non-essential detail. At a time when hybrid work has blurred personal and professional boundaries, balancing authenticity with the right amount of discretion is important.”

What do you think? Should we go back to the old days of leaving your personality and opinions at the door when you enter the office?

AI Insights

1. NVIDIA just dropped a bunch of exciting new tech: At the recent CES 2025, CEO Jensen Huang introduced the Cosmos platform for physical AI, new GeForce RTX 50 Series GPUs (massively boosting graphics horsepower), AI foundation models for RTX PCs (supporting applications in digital humans, content creation, and productivity), and a partnership with Toyota for safe next-gen vehicle development.

2. Microsoft has hit pause on its incredibly massive data center: Expected to be used by OpenAI for an enormous super computer, construction on the $3.3 billion data center is on hold while Microsoft “evaluates scope and recent changes in technology”. 

3. AI chatbots boosted 2024 holiday sales: Salesforce data has revealed AI-powered chatbots boosted online sales in the US by 4% year-over-year, influencing customers through targeted promotions, recommendations, and loyalty programs. However, product returns have shot up from 20% in 2023 to 28% in 2024%. More AI influence = more buyer’s remorse?

The Supply Aside

📕 Read - Anxious People: A Novel 

After botching a bank robbery, a would-be criminal bursts into an apartment open house and takes a group of strangers hostage. Unfortunately for him, they turn out to be the worst group of hostages in the world. Managing to be simultaneously funny and wise, Fredrik Backman’s Anxious People was my holiday fiction read this year, suggested by a friend. This novel would make a great stage production. 

What Else I’m Reading

• Sam Altman’s wide-ranging interview with Bloomberg: Altman chats candidly about his four-day ousting from OpenAI, his leadership style (deep in the weeds), what Trump and Musk need to do to keep the US leading the world in AI, and the pursuit of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Oh, and he’s extremely confident we’ll have fusion power soon. 

• Altman (again) is wildly successful at picking promising start ups: Altman is part of an elite group of 250 early-stage investors (including Musk and Bezos) who generate supersized returns. 28% of Altman’s early-stage investments made at least 10x the original stake, while 27 now have valuations over $1 billion. 

• NEETS are opting out of the labor market: “With inflation and rents rising, the incentive to devote all of my time to an employer to barely scrape by didn’t make sense any more”, one young person told the Financial Times. One in ten young people in the US are now economically inactive, or “Not in Education, Employment, or Training” (hence “NEET”). This trend has real potential to undermine the bright economic future I wrote about in issue #68. 

📺 Watch - Piece by Piece

A biographical documentary told in Lego format? Piece by Piece tells the story of Pharrell Williams’ journey from a Virginia Beach housing project to international music stardom. Featuring lego versions of Gwen Stefani, Kendrick Lamar, Jay-Z, Snoop Dogg and others, one of the reasons this film works so well is its portrayal of Pharrell’s synesthesia, which means he “sees” vibrant colors in music. It’s hard to describe how Lego achieves this, so be sure to check it out. 

👂 Listen - Acquired Podcast: Mars Inc., The Chocolate Story

With a net worth of approximately $127 billion, the secretive Mars clan are the second-wealthiest family in the United States. This episode of Acquired tells the incredible story of Mars Inc. (the chocolate, not the planet). Last year, Mars made its biggest expansion deal ever - a $36 billion acquisition of snack and cereal maker Kellanova. 

💡 Think - Labor Crunch Cometh?

The labor market is walking a tightrope—and the strain is starting to show. While tech sectors turn to remote work, offshoring, and AI to bridge gaps, industries reliant on physical labor, like manufacturing, construction, and in-person services, face far fewer options.

Demographic shifts, reduced immigration, and an aging workforce are converging to shrink the labor pool at a pivotal moment. These challenges could fuel persistent inflation, stall economic growth, and strain industries’ ability to meet demand. As the workforce evolves, bold solutions from businesses and policymakers will be critical to tackling what’s shaping up to be a defining challenge of our time. Are we prepared to rewrite the playbook? Only time will tell.

📕 Be sure to check out my book: Fire the Boss, Keep the Love: 10 Jobs, 10 Exits, 10 Lessons.

Whether you're starting your career or a seasoned pro, this book offers fresh perspectives and actionable advice to help you level up. I delve into my own personal career story and career wisdom from top executives to explore topics including:

• Career transition strategies

• Building lasting professional relationships

• Tips for thriving in diverse corporate cultures

Fire the Boss, Keep the Love is a must-read for anyone ready to take charge of their career journey and forge an authentic path to success. Get your copy on Amazon!

💡 Course: Craft Your Career!

As the world of work continues to evolve rapidly, with a more globalized labor market and many companies reducing headcount, the risk of getting left behind is higher than ever.

Throw in the rapid adoption of AI in the workplace and the rise of remote work, and even the most competent and hardworking leaders and professionals are struggling to keep up.

In Craft Your Career, Aaron Cleavinger and I teach you the skills you need to stay ahead of the curve and craft the career you deserve. Check it out here and enroll:  http://craftyourcareer.com/

Charts of the Week

Quote of the Week

Tweet of the Week

The Final Chuckle

Thanks so much for reading. I’d love to know what you think about this issue and how I can make it more useful to you.

If you have suggestions or topics you want to see me address, email me at [email protected]!

Want more?

If you’d like to read more of my writing on the supply chain, entrepreneurship, or the future of work, check out my website.

For timely updates, follow me on LinkedIn and Twitter!

Happy reading this weekend!

-- Naseem