Hello, dear readers!

Welcome to the 100th issue of The Supply Times!

When I hit send on that very first edition, I wanted to create a space for some honest, unfiltered conversation about the macroeconomy. I wanted to examine supply chains, talent, and leadership through a fairly unique lens: someone who has spent time on both sides of the table.

If you've been along for the ride, you know a bit of my story. Back in 2012, I took the plunge, walked away from a supply management leadership role, and jumped into the entrepreneurial unknown to build a business from scratch. Then, more than a decade later, the pendulum swung back, and I returned to the operating side, putting my entrepreneurial lessons to work inside a large enterprise undergoing significant change alongside a CPO I deeply respect.

Two very different worlds. Yet living in both led me to the same conclusion. The macro forces reshaping our economy do not care what is on your business card. Whether you are running a startup from a small office or leading a billion-dollar function inside a Fortune 500 company, the rules of economic survival have fundamentally changed.

To mark this milestone, I spent some time looking back through the archives and revisiting the themes that have recurred over the last 99 issues. What emerged were ten contrarian trends that, in my view, will continue shaping business, talent, and supply chains as we move through the second half of 2026.

Let’s get going.

Ten Trends for the Road Ahead

1. Reshoring is an illusion. Supply webs are the reality.

Shortening a supply chain doesn't automatically make it safer; sometimes, it just concentrates your vulnerability.

Back when global disruptions first hit, the immediate, knee-jerk corporate reaction was to promise a massive return to domestic manufacturing. The logic seemed simple enough: bring everything back home and protect the business from international shocks.

Pure self-sufficiency is a myth in a modern economy. True operational resilience requires building a hyper-flexible supply web rather than isolating your production inside a single border. Failing to dynamically swap a supplier in one country for an alternative in another during a crisis leaves your operations heavily exposed to localized disasters.

From the Archives: I  broke this down in issue #14, looking at the semiconductor rush. Everyone thought building massive chip fabrication plants in Ohio and Arizona was a slam dunk for domestic independence. But reality quickly hit: the assembly lines still rely on ultra-pure chemicals from Japan and specialized lithography lenses from Europe. Moving the final factory didn’t eliminate the global web; it just changed our reliance from the finished product to the raw inputs.

2. Nearshoring is a geopolitical shell game.

A lot of Western businesses thought they were cutting ties with overseas dependencies. In reality, they just handed their rivals a backdoor into the domestic market.

Just look at the massive rush of foreign manufacturing infrastructure popping up right across the border in places like Monterrey. Real estate billboards are being printed with Mandarin translations for a reason. Foreign firms didn't step aside when trade restrictions tightened; they simply adjusted their corporate addresses to bypass tariffs and exploit free-trade agreements.

The result? We’ve traded a straightforward sourcing model for a highly complex, expensive detour through intermediaries. Sourcing strategies can’t be built on superficial geographic labels. Tracing your tier-two and tier-three components all the way back to the raw material level is the only way to actually change your risk profile, rather than just repackaging it.

From the Archives: I mapped this out in Issue #45 when I described the massive Chinese capital flight into Northern Mexico. When direct US tariffs tightened, manufacturers simply shifted their operations to Nuevo León, stamped "Made in Mexico" on the parts, and rolled them across the Texas border tariff-free.

3. The ROI on an MBA is shifting

If you've thought about an MBA to boost your career lately, you already know it's getting pricier by the year.

Tuition at top programs is up 11% over the last four years. Business schools are in a full-blown talent war, losing professors to tech giants and Wall Street and paying handsomely to keep them (full-professor salaries now average around $219,000). Then you have to include the costs of career coaching, mental health support, and global programs. It’s all valuable, but none of it scales. Higher education is a high-touch, people-heavy model, and costs keep rising because the product itself can't be industrialized.

So here is the real question: if the cost keeps climbing, is the return keeping pace? Companies have already decided to stop paying for the signal and start building that capability in-house.

From the Archives: In Issue #96, I looked at how leading logistics and enterprise players are completely shaking up their talent pipelines. Instead of paying a premium for a traditional MBA credential, companies are building internal data academies to train their own operations managers in predictive modeling, getting hyper-specific talent at a fraction of the cost.

4. The Cloud is ultimately bound by concrete and power grids.

Hype cycles love to treat technology like it's completely weightless. But the reality of high-intensity computing is that it's heavy, asset-oriented, and severely resource-constrained.

Humanity is producing a staggering volume of data every single second, and the AI boom has turned that stream into a total torrent. To process it, tech giants are locked in a massive spending spree to build server environments across the globe. But these structures are massive energy and water hogs. In major tech hubs, data centers are consuming an alarming share of the local power grid, triggering planning restrictions and localized freezes on new infrastructure connections.

When data consumption outpaces local resource availability, your digital scalability hits a hard ceiling. Managing your operational strategy like cloud computing is an infinite, invisible utility means you're ignoring the physical supply chain rules that govern the digital world.

From the Archives: This physical bottleneck was the focus of Issue #65, where we covered the gridlock in data center capital Northern Virginia. As demand for generative AI computing exploded, local utilities literally had to tell tech giants that the physical power grid couldn't handle more server warehouses without risking blackouts in local residential neighborhoods.

5. Abstract economic models are a lagging indicator of consumer behavior.

For years, the consensus was that an economic crash was coming. We were told to brace for impact as inflation ran hot. Instead, consumer spending and real disposable income continued to expand, and recession probabilities plummeted.

Intricate economic forecasts miss the reality on the ground because they rely on historical data points rather than real-time behavior. It pays to stop managing your business based on macroeconomic anxiety and start looking at what your own operational metrics are telling you.

From the Archives: I called out "The Great Recession That Never Happened" in Issue #46. While traditional Wall Street yield-curve models were screaming that a consumer spending collapse was locked in, real-time credit card transaction data and airline bookings showed that everyday people were still aggressively spending on travel and live experiences.

6. Performative visibility is the enemy of genuine output.

When managers measure inputs instead of outcomes, digital “busywork” skyrockets. We’ve entered an era of total workplace distraction.

The average knowledge worker faces hundreds of interruptions a day, bouncing between bloated email threads and endless instant messages. Surveillance software forces people to rely on artificial metrics to appear active rather than improving performance. Valuing looking busy over real execution burns out your top talent for the sake of an optical illusion.

From the Archives: Issue #58 covered the corporate backlash against mouse-mover software and mandatory activity trackers on Slack and Teams. The data showed that aggressive tracking just caused a massive spike in superficial digital noise while actual project delivery and operational output tanked.

7. Centralized corporate scripts guarantee localized fires.

Corporate headquarters loves uniformity. It looks clean, organized, and elegant on a master spreadsheet. But a universal policy designed in a corporate bubble almost always breaks down on the ground.

A grocery store in the Midwest operates in a completely different labor reality than a high-end boutique on the coast. Stripping flexibility from frontline managers undermines their ability to balance data with human empathy. True efficiency requires localized, data-driven precision. The fastest way to get everyone on the same page is to stop trying to write the exact same page for everyone.

From the Archives: I looked at this breakdown in Issue #99, charting a major retail chain that mandated a rigid, centralized "just-in-time" inventory layout across all North American locations. It looked beautiful at HQ, but in the snowy Northeast, it caused empty shelves because frontline managers weren't allowed to deviate from the script to pre-order extra safety stock ahead of predictable winter storms.

8. Volume is dying. Premiumization is winning.

Squeezing costs out of a high-volume commodity is a losing game when energy and operational costs are this volatile.

Look at the airline sector. Success belongs to the players who abandoned the sky-bus model to focus on a premium, high-margin ecosystem. Look at the consumer marketplace, where GLP-1 medications are systematically shrinking processed food volumes while high-quality casual dining and wellness investments are surging. The mass market is cracking. To survive, you have to insulate your margins by delivering an experience that consumers are genuinely willing to pay for.

From the Archives: In Issue #98, I examined United Airlines and the premiumization of the aviation sector. Instead of sticking with the traditional "bus in the sky" commodity model, the winners are treating travel like a premium ecosystem. They are investing capital in premium retrofits and locking in high-value customers who treat their choices as a lifestyle commitment, insulating their margins while low-cost carriers face a financial squeeze.

9. AI is radically shifting what companies pay for.

The sensationalist headlines love to claim that algorithms are coming to clear out entire white-collar departments overnight. The reality on the ground is far less dramatic, but much more challenging: AI isn't destroying careers (yet) but it is fundamentally altering employee leverage and widening the skill gap.

We are seeing a massive corporate pivot away from paying for basic execution. Tasks like drafting standard contracts, crunching routine spend data, or generating first-round marketing copy have become instantly commoditized. The premium has shifted entirely to structural judgment: the people who can audit the AI's bias, connect isolated data ecosystems, and apply deep institutional knowledge to the results. If your career strategy relies purely on being a fast, reliable processor of information, you are competing directly with a cost curve that drops to near-zero every day.

From the Archives: I broke down this talent restructuring in Issue #88, looking at the sudden and alarming disappearance of entry-level roles. Meanwhile, the demand—and the salary premium—for "system architecture" thinkers who can orchestrate these tools has skyrocketed.

10. Sliding employee engagement is a concerning drag on baseline productivity.

We spend a lot of time talking about high-level operational scripts, mandates, and advanced technology. But leadership teams consistently underestimate the most fundamental variable of all: whether the people running your systems actually care about the work they do.

When corporate culture fractures and employee connection slips, it doesn't usually show up as an immediate, dramatic collapse. Instead, it looks like a slow, structural slide in your day-to-day output. People don't stop working entirely; they stop offering solutions, ignore process gaps, and expend their energy on bare-minimum compliance. You can buy the best software and build the cleanest supply loops on Earth, but if your workforce is mentally checked out, your true operational efficiency hits a hard, unyielding ceiling.

From the Archives:Issue #97 tracks Gallup's latest global workplace data. The numbers showed a steady, multi-year decline in workforce engagement, along with a sharp drop in job market optimism. Just an HR issue? Unfortunately not. It's a massive, hidden tax on organizational performance that inevitably shows up in broken pipelines, missed delivery windows, and dragging corporate margins.

Read, Watch, Listen, Think … The 100-issue Audit

Now, if you’ve been reading along for a while, you know that every issue of The Supply Times ends with my personal recommendations—whether that's a book I couldn't put down, a podcast that got me thinking, or a show or movie I’ve consumed. I usually pair those with a quick digest of the latest AI-focused news snippets shaping our world.

As a fun thought experiment for this 100th milestone, I decided to feed all of those past recommendations and snippets into an AI engine to analyze my own data. I wanted to see what patterns emerged when I zoomed out on everything I’ve been sharing with you.

The results were actually pretty eye-opening. Here is what the analysis turned up.

📕 Read

When it comes to books, my reading habits reflect an obsession with the forces shaping business execution and global markets. Instead of picking up generic bestsellers, I’ve spent the last four years balancing internal leadership mechanics with the massive historical and behavioral shifts that completely disrupt industries from the outside.

• Corporate Strategy & Leadership (40%): A heavy focus on pure execution, organizational health, and leadership performance, leaning on books like CEO Excellence, Execution, and The Five Dysfunctions of a Team.

• Geopolitics & Macro Shocks (30%): Deep dives into global trade friction and technological turf wars, driven by titles like Chip War, New Cold Wars, and The Coming Wave.

• Behavioral Psychology & Mindset (20%): Tracking human nature, decision-making, and long-term health, pulling from books like Same As Ever, Clear Thinking, and Outlive.

• Industrial Scandals & True Crime (10%): Analyzing what happens when corporate governance falls apart, looking closely at texts like Going Infinite and When McKinsey Comes to Town.

"What Else I'm Reading" Trends

The broader business coverage in the newsletter acts as an early-warning radar for anomalies that standard corporate reporting typically misses. Looking back across the entire archive, the reading lists captured four massive structural realignments that are quietly rewriting our economic and cultural reality.

• The Higher Ed Realities & Skills Gap (35%): Tracking the systematic breakdown of traditional credentials, covering everything from rampant grade inflation to unreadable transcripts, and the corporate pivot toward skills-based hiring.

• Healthcare & GLP-1 Behavioral Disruption (25%): Watching how new weight-loss medications like Ozempic and Wegovy are altering consumer habits, shrinking food supply chains, and shifting corporate retail strategies.

• Market Volatility & Corporate Realignment (25%): Monitoring the hidden liquidity shifts in tech, including OpenAI pre-IPO wealth checks, secondary equity markets, and targeted white-collar corporate layoffs.

• Geopolitical Friction & Defense Logistics (15%): Following the friction points of modern superpower conflict, like rare earth metal standoffs, advanced semiconductor export restrictions, and critical cyber defense protocols.

📺 Watch

My choices in documentaries, movies, and streaming series show that I am fascinated by corporate overreach and eventual market reality checks. I’ve shared stories that serve as a warning flag, exposing the moment when executive ego and financial engineering collide with economics.

• Corporate Hubris & Fraud Chronicles (60%): Dissecting high-profile financial disasters, inflated valuations, and outright bubbles through titles like Madoff, Wanted: Carlos Ghosn, Blackberry, Painkiller, WeCrashed, and Buy Now! The Shopping Conspiracy.

• Geopolitical & High-Performance Documentaries (40%): Tracking complex operational triumphs and high-stakes logistical challenges in intense environments, through series like The Chain, American Manhunt, and Masters of the Air.

👂 Listen

My listening patterns reveal a interest in raw, unfiltered business histories and the day-to-day realities of managing people. I’ve tuned out the generic, low-value hype-builders to focus entirely on detailed company origin stories and strategic survival guides.

• Founder Mindset & Sourcing Strategy (50%): Studying the early, messy days of building an enterprise through shows like The Knowledge Project and How I Built This.

• Deep-Dive Industrial Sagas (35%): Unpacking the dense corporate histories, financial maneuvers, and pricing strategies that built the world's tech giants, almost entirely dominated by Acquired.

• Workplace Friction & Agility Playbooks (15%): Staying on top of modern office dynamics, changing labor trends, and executive team building by tuning into FT's Working It.

AI Insights

Tracking my interest in artificial intelligence across 100 issues shows that it shifted over time from theoretical speculation to physical constraints. The data confirms I've moved away from asking what the algorithms can do, and am now focused on how enterprise efficiency is hitting the brick wall of energy and infrastructure realities.

• Enterprise Models & Token Wars (45%): Monitoring the intense, daily engineering battle between OpenAI, Anthropic, and open-source models like Llama and DeepSeek.

• Compute & Energy Infrastructure (30%): Analyzing the physical bottlenecks of the tech boom, including data center real estate, nuclear power purchase agreements, and orbital compute concepts.

• Workforce Dynamics & Metrics (15%): Factoring in the boots-on-the-ground impact of technology, like autonomous interview loops, automated internal agents, and the corporate backlash over mouse-tracking or tokenmaxxing.

• Physical Robotics & Humanoids (10%): Keeping tabs on hardware crossing over into the real world, specifically humanoid automation in fulfillment centers and advanced tactile sensors.

🧠 Think: The Next 100

One hundred issues ago, this newsletter was just an experiment. A way to make sense of a rapidly changing world and keep myself sharp. Somewhere along the way, between tracking the death of the supercampus and watching AI write its first lines of code, it turned into a full-blown labor of love.

We have lived through an extraordinary pendulum swing over the last four years. We went from worrying about clogged ports and container shortages to debating semiconductor sovereignty, AI agents, and the future of work itself. Personally, this journey took me from the entrepreneurial trenches back into the operating world, putting those lessons to work inside a large enterprise and giving me a front-row seat to watch the world rewrite its rules in real time.

Whether you've been reading since TST launched in 2021 or just joined us for this milestone, thank you for giving me a slice of your attention every other Thursday. Writing The Supply Times has made me a better thinker, a better leader, and a better collaborator.

As we look ahead to the next hundred editions, one thing feels certain: the pace of change is not slowing down. The landscape will get weirder, faster, and more unpredictable.

But our job remains the same. Cut through the pageantry. Trust the data. And never build a strategy that depends on luck.

Here's to the next 100.

Thanks for reading,

— Naseem

Charts of the Week

Quotes of the Week

Tweet of the Week

The Final Chuckle

Thanks so much for reading. I’d love to know what you think about this issue and how I can make it more useful to you. If you have suggestions or topics you want to see me address, email me at [email protected]!

-- Naseem