Welcome to the final issue of The Supply Times for 2023!

In just over two years since launching the first issue, we’ve published 47 newsletters and gathered over 8,500 readers. Whether you’ve joined recently or have been with me since the beginning, thank you for making me show up every other Thursday. Sharing everything I consume is a wonderful motivator for becoming a better thinker and writer. 

On that note, I’d like to ask you, dear reader, for some feedback: I’ve compiled this reader survey to understand better which parts of TST you like or dislike. The survey takes just a few minutes, and you can skip any question you don’t want to answer.  

So, what should we talk about here at the end of 2023? How about some of the top stories we’ve covered this year, followed by The Economist’s 10 leading trends for 2024? There’s a treasure trove of charts for the ‘visual’ readers among you, along with thoughts and notes (as usual) on what I’m reading, listening to, Tweets of the week, and a final chuckle. 

See you in the new year!

-Naseem

The Year In Review: TST’s Top Stories From 2023

From the Ozempic wonder drug to the surge in worker strikes, here’s my pick of the many stories we’ve covered this year.

1. Obesity treatment leaped forward in 2023: Groundbreaking advancements in obesity treatment, fueled by innovative medications like semaglutide and tirzepatide, offered new hope for sustainable weight loss and improved health. Importantly, the new drug is helping to challenge societal perceptions around obesity. 

2. The mood can change quickly in US-China relations: This article discussed the unpredictability of US-China relations and how unexpected events, external factors and domestic politics can rapidly shift the mood in either direction. This is something to remember when you read The Economist’s prediction of Cold War II (see “The Year Ahead”, below).

3. 2023 saw a surge in strikes: 354 strikes involving approximately 492,000 workers led to historic company-wide and industry-wide bargaining victories against major corporations.

4. The office has evolved: We’ve seen a great deal of discussion about the future of work this year, and the remote working debate is as fierce as ever. Meanwhile, the office itself has morphed to adapt to the hybrid future, with conference spaces coming into the open, a greater focus on collaboration, employee wellness, and more.

5. Air travel was truly terrible in 2023: In the first five months of 2023, air travel complaints surged by 68% compared to 2022, and 584% compared to 2019. Some of this was due to storms and other events, but the blame mainly lies on air traffic controllers, airplanes, and pilot shortages. Travelers are likely to experience higher fares and increased disruptions in 2024. 

2023 in Eight Charts

McKinsey has pulled together a treasure trove of data visualizations from 2023. Here are eight of the charts I’ve found most compelling.

The Year Ahead: 10 Trends To Watch in 2024

It’s incredible, when you think about it, just how much hinges on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. At least eight out of Tom Standage’s Ten Trends to Watch in 2024 will be impacted by who wins on November 5th. 

1. A Huge Year for Elections: 2024 has been labeled the Super Bowl of election years, with 40+ countries representing around 40% of the world’s population going to the polls. Apart from the Biden-Trump showdown, there’ll be elections in India, the UK, Ukraine, Taiwan, and (most likely bogus elections) Russia and Iran. 

2. Biden vs Trump: We’ve already reached saturation point on this topic, but there’s no denying its place at the top of trends to watch in 2024. Check out The Atlantic special edition (below) for more. 

3. Ukraine Needs Europe if Trump Wins: With US support for Ukraine already beginning to wobble and the possibility of a victorious Trump withdrawing military support, Europe must step up and provide more military and economic backing and lay out a path for eventual EU membership. 

4. Turmoil in the Middle East: Sadly, we can’t expect a sudden resolution to the violence in the Middle East, but it’s important not to lose hope. As David Carr writes, the conflict has never had a higher chance of spiraling out of control, but at the same time, “the region has not had a better chance of peace in two decades.”

5. The Post-1945 World Order is Looking Shaky: Geopolitical instability is on the rise and the Western coalition is more fragile than ever. America faces a long slog to stabilize and then renew a system of international trade and security.

6. A Second Cold War: China’s economy is slowing, but tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea continue to simmer. Expect bloc-style politics as China and the US seek to woo the global south for support and resources. Again, so much depends on the outcome of the US presidential election.

7. Competition for new resources: Green resources - lithium, copper, and nickel, will be increasingly important while oil and gas enter their long decline. Watch for the emergence of ‘green superpowers’; or countries with abundant green resources.

8. The Global Economy is Vulnerable: The question of whether America is headed for a soft landing is still in the air (pun intended), but the fact remains that though inflation will be lower, it will still be too high. Many other countries appear to be headed for a recession, even if the US manages to avoid one. 

9. Generative AI Continues Its Advance: Tools like ChatGPT have fast moved from a novelty to an essential day-to-day tool. Businesses in 2024 will continue to find new ways to implement AI and boost productivity across customer operations, marketing and sales, software engineering, and research and development. But first, worker reluctance may need to be overcome. 

10. Cricket Will Go Mainstream In 2024: The Economists’ final prediction is one close to my heart - stay tuned for America’s “Summer of Cricket” in 2024. This will include the men’s Twenty20 World Cup in June, back to back with the new “Major League Cricket” (MLC) professional tournament. I’m excited. 

The Supply Aside

📕 Read - “If Trump Wins” (The Atlantic)

Well, here’s my holiday reading sorted! For The Atlantic’s January/February 2024 issue, 24 contributors consider what Donald Trump could do if he returns to the White House. There’s already no avoiding the hysteria and palpable fear of The Donald’s possible comeback. Some interesting writers contributed to this historic edition, so I look forward to these differing perspectives. I like the fact that the contributors break down the prospect into several specific areas, such as what a Trump win would mean for NATO, climate, the courts, disinformation, and more. 

📺 Watch - World War II: From The Frontlines

Watching World War II: From The Frontlines isn’t about learning historical details of specific battles or in-depth analyses of Hitler’s motivations. Instead, it uses colorized and enhanced footage to immerse viewers in the midst of battles and to present the grim realities of war. The six-part series features interviews with soldiers on both sides of the conflict, along with personal narratives from survivors of the Holocaust and Hiroshima.  

👂 Listen - Jeff Bezos interview (Lex Fridman Podcast)

It’s easy to dehumanize people in positions of power, which is why many people don’t like Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. This two-hour chat with Bezos helps reveal the human behind the billionaire, starting with his childhood experiences on a Texas ranch. For space enthusiasts, almost an hour of this podcast discusses the challenges of space exploration, rocket engineering, Blue Origin, and the Lunar program. Finally, Bezos explains some of the principles behind Amazon, including his “first-day thinking” theory.  

💡 Think - 20 Life Lessons with Byron Wien

I recently came across this interesting list of lessons from Byron Wien, Vice Chairman at Blackstone. Just before he passed away earlier this year, he shared 20 lessons he learned throughout his career. Here are my favorite three:

1. “Don’t try to be better than your competitors; try to be different. There is always going to be someone smarter than you, but there may not be someone who is more imaginative.”

2. “Network intensely. Luck plays a big role in life, and there is no better way to increase your luck than by knowing as many people as possible.” 

3. “Evolve. Try to think of your life in phases so you can avoid a burnout. Do the numbers crunching in the early phase of your career. Try developing concepts later on. Stay at risk throughout the process.”

Quotes of the Week

Tweets of the Week

The Final Chuckle

Thanks so much for reading. I’d really appreciate it if you could spare a few minutes to complete my reader survey. 

If you have suggestions or topics you want to see me address, email me at [email protected]!

Want more?

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I wish you all the joy of the season. Have a rejuvenating holiday and a very happy New Year!

-- Naseem