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What We Can Learn From the DOGE Approach

What We Can Learn From the DOGE Approach

The Supply Times Issue #72

Naseem Malik
February 13, 2025

Hello again, dear readers!

Love DOGE? Hate DOGE? Put your feelings aside, because in this issue, I’m looking at the new negotiation paradigm observable in the Trump-Musk approach to getting things done. Spoiler: it’s aggressive. And by the way: Doge.Gov has just launched its website - read on to discover more.

In other news, I’m digging a bit deeper into the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2025, looking at the strategies organizations around the globe are employing to address skills gaps and boost talent availability.

This issue features the usual bunch of AI Insights and recommendations for the week's podcasts, books, shows, charts, and tweets, followed by a final chuckle.

Let’s get going.

Industry Highlights: What We Can Learn From the Trump-Musk Approach

The DOGE website just went live.

At present, the site simply features an X feed where DOGE staff announce cost-cutting and contract cancellations. Examples include a $4.6 million dollar contract to a meeting coordinator in the Department of Education, and a contractor paid $1.5 million to observe mailing and clerical operations at a mail center.

There’s still room for more transparency - we simply have to take the DOGE team’s word for it that these contracts existed and have indeed been canceled. There’s no way at present to understand the full story behind each contract. Why was there a highly-paid contractor observing mail operations? Perhaps that role was there for similar reasons as those espoused by DOGE: watching for fraud, cutting waste, and finding efficiencies. Unlikely.

There’s hope that transparency will improve Doge.Gov. According to a recent announcement, within 24 hours we should also see a description/amount of each cost reduction (with receipts where applicable), and an overall savings scorecard.

Now, I’m going to do my best to remain apolitical here. Whether or not you agree with Trump, Musk, and the stated aims of DOGE, you have to admit that the sheer scale of its scope is breathtaking - described by one commentator as the procurement story of the century.

At present, the website also features a consolidated government org chart, tracking the number of agencies, sub-agencies, and tax dollars spent.

Clicking on the Consumer Product Safety Commission for example, brings up the headcount, number of subordinate offices, and total wages (in this case, $62.2 million). There appears to be future scope to dive deeper to the office/department level.

Finally, there’s the regulations section. DOGE is tracking what they call the “Unconstitutionality Index”, or agency rules created by unelected officials, along with federal regulations by agency in number of words and sections of regulation.

I’ll be checking back tomorrow to look at the promised savings scorecard, which should at least give us a strong idea of which agencies are receiving the most attention.

What should DOGE do after the cost-cutting concludes?

There’s two elements for this exercise - first, the aggressive cost-cutting phase (which we’re in the middle of now), and secondly, putting in place a series of initiatives that should lead to better government efficiency, particularly in departments that will be left seriously under-staffed.

In his analysis published on LinkedIn, Jason Busch suggests numerous opportunities for DOGE to enhance value through procurement, starting by implementing continuous real-time reporting and spend analytics for transparency, adding recovery and audit capabilities to reclaim overpayments and prevent fraud, and establishing “No-PO, no-Pay” systems with multi-level matching against contract requirements.

DOGE could deploy contract performance management linked to outcomes, supplement human efforts with AI for scalable procurement processes, and utilize combinatorial optimization for bid collection and award decisions. Additionally, incorporating supply chain risk management, securing legacy systems with modern technology, placing payments on an auditable blockchain with compliance requirements, and fostering innovation by exploring new suppliers in the defense sector can significantly improve procurement effectiveness.

What can we learn from the Trump-Musk approach?

Meanwhile, there are some lessons to learn here from the Trump and Musk approach to negotiation that we can glean from their rapid-fire action on tariffs (Trump) and DOGE (Musk). Here are some of the tactics that are emerging, with thanks to The Negotiation Club:

Moving fast and breaking things: This strategy emphasizes quick decision-making and a willingness to disrupt the norm. It encourages negotiators to take bold actions, accepting that some risks may lead to faster results.
Flooding the zone: Overwhelming the other party with a multitude of options or demands to create confusion. By presenting various issues at once, you can divert attention and push for concessions.
Brinkmanship: Engaging in brinkmanship means pushing negotiations to the edge of collapse to pressure the other party into making concessions. It’s a high-stakes approach that can demonstrate resolve.
Starting with bold proposals: Initiating discussions with high-stakes offers sets a strong tone. This tactic - known as “anchoring” forces the other party to react to extreme starting points, helping shift the focus toward more favorable terms.
No shades of gray: Reducing complex negotiations to clear “wins” or “losses” can speed things up, clarify objectives, and motivate teams to focus on decisive goals. Unfortunately, it leaves less room for a win-win outcome.
Instilling a sense of urgency: Creating time pressure encourages quicker decision-making. Leveraging time-sensitive offers or deadlines can expedite negotiations, prompting faster concessions from suppliers.
Maintaining an element of unpredictability: Keeping your approach unpredictable complicates opponents' preparations. This can enhance your negotiation strategy, making it difficult for suppliers to anticipate your demands.
Utilizing public forums for leverage: Engaging in public discussions about supplier performance or market trends can create additional pressure. Public platforms can serve as effective tools in negotiations.
High-pressure tactics: The rise of aggressive negotiation styles means procurement professionals face increased pressure to respond decisively. Adapting to this environment requires readiness to employ assertive tactics while maintaining professionalism.

Want to go full-DOGE when negotiating with your suppliers?

Go ahead; you’ll certainly get results! But a word of warning: aggressive negotiation tactics will be highly effective when prioritizing immediate gains, but harmful in terms of long-term relationships. They tend to reduce supplier relationships to the transactional level, destroying trust and removing the likelihood of collaboration in the future. While you might score quick wins and cut costs now, you risk alienating suppliers who could provide value beyond just pricing—like innovation, reliability, and support.

In the long run, fostering positive relationships can lead to better terms, improved service, and a more resilient supply chain. So, if you choose to adopt a full-Trump approach, be prepared for potential fallout. Balancing assertiveness with respect and communication is key to ensuring that your negotiation strategies don’t backfire down the road.

The Future of Work: Workforce Strategies according to the WEF

In this issue, I’m digging a bit deeper into the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025. Its authors reveal that 63% of employers see skills shortages as the main hurdle to business change. This issue isn't just local; it's a global concern that ranks as the top barrier in 52 out of 55 economies and across 19 out of 22 sectors.

Talent availability outlook

Employers are feeling less optimistic about talent availability compared to the previous report’s findings. Now, only 29% expect improvements from 2025 to 2030, down from 39% in 2023. 42% anticipate a decline, resulting in a net negative outlook of -13%. This shift shows growing worries among businesses about finding the right talent for the future.

Despite these concerns, many employers are hopeful about talent development. About 70% expect to see advancements in this area within their organizations by 2030. However, optimism has also waned when it comes to retaining talent: only 44% believe they will improve their retention efforts, a decrease from 53% two years ago.

Workforce strategies

Upskilling is the most favored strategy to tackle current trends, with 85% of employers planning to implement this approach between 2025 and 2030. This priority is consistent across various regions, with slightly more emphasis in high-income countries (87%) like the USA.

The second most popular strategy is process and task automation, with 73% of employers looking to speed up this process, a decrease from 80% in the last report. Additionally, 63% plan to enhance their workforce with new technologies. High-income economies are more inclined towards automation (77%) compared to upper-middle (74%) and lower-middle-income (57%) economies.

When it comes to workforce composition, 70% of employers aim to hire new staff with in-demand skills, 51% plan to transition employees to growing roles, and 41% foresee reductions due to skills becoming outdated. A few more employers are considering reshoring or nearshoring operations (10%) than those planning to offshore (8%).

Enhancing talent availability

Supporting employee health and well-being has risen as a key priority for boosting talent availability from 2025 to 2030. Now, 64% of employers see potential in this strategy, climbing from 9th place in the previous report to the top spot this year.

Other strategies to increase talent availability include offering effective reskilling and upskilling programs, which 63% of organizations prioritize, especially in the Government and Public sector. Improving talent progression and promotion is also crucial for 62% of employers, while 50% highlight higher wages as a priority, particularly in Education and Training, where 61% emphasize this.

Diversity in talent sourcing is becoming more important, with 47% of employers recognizing its potential, a significant jump from just over 10% last year. This underscores a growing trend towards skills-first approaches for attracting talent, focusing on abilities rather than traditional qualifications. Employers are also more interested in flexible work options, such as remote work (27%) and support for caregivers (26%). On the other hand, “highlighting business purpose” has lost some ground.

Skills assessment approaches

Eliminating degree requirements and focusing on skills-based hiring is gaining traction as a way to broaden talent availability. Work experience remains the most common assessment method, with 81% of employers planning to continue using it from 2025 to 2030. Only 4% of companies don’t assess prospective employees’ skills, showing that skills evaluation is nearly universal.

Skills assessments are expected to be the second most common evaluation method (48%). Psychometric tests are also gaining popularity, with 34% of businesses planning to use them to evaluate behavioral traits and cultural fit.

The requirement for a university degree ranks third, with 43% of employers intending to keep it. However, the trend is moving towards valuing work experience and psychometric testing over traditional degrees. This shift could help widen talent pools, especially as many fast-growing jobs primarily require skills accessible through vocational training or apprenticeships rather than advanced degrees.

Wage trends

The survey shows that 52% of employers globally expect to increase the share of their revenue allocated to wages between 2025 and 2030. Meanwhile, 41% anticipate wage allocations will remain stable, and 7% foresee a decrease.

Smaller companies are more bullish, with 57% of those with fewer than 1,000 employees expecting wage growth, compared to 45% of those with 10,000 to 50,000 employees and 47% of larger firms.

Two main factors stand out here: aligning wages with productivity and performance (77% of respondents) and the need to retain talent (71%). Only six industries emphasize competition for talent over productivity: Electronics, Insurance, Professional Services, Real Estate, Medical Services, and Government. Other sectors focus more on productivity when developing wage strategies for the coming years.

AI Insights

DeepSeek is aggressively recruiting specialists for “arcane” field of AI: DeepSeek is ramping up hiring as it aims to lead in artificial general intelligence (AGI). The company recently posted job openings for various Beijing-based roles in AGI and deep-learning research, signaling its ambition to compete with global players like OpenAI.

Thomson Reuters has won a copyright infringement lawsuit against a legal AI startup: Filed in 2020, the case examined the legality of AI training methods that often use copyrighted data without permission. The judge dismissed Ross's fair-use defense, finding it inadequate against the copyright infringement claims. Why is this noteworthy? It’s one of the first cases to address this issue, and therefore sets a precedent.
OpenAI set to finalize first custom chip design this year: OpenAI is finalizing its first custom AI chip design this year and plans to send it for fabrication at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. This "taping out" process could lead to mass production of the chip, allowing ChatGPT to explore alternatives to Nvidia's chips. Initially, the chip will be used for running AI models.

The Supply Aside

📕 Read - Outlive: The Science & Art of Longevity

Observant readers of The Supply Times may spot a trend here - last issue I reviewed the Bryan Johnson documentary Don’t Die. This week, I’m recommending Outlive - The Science & Art of Longevity. There are some excellent points in this book about how mainstream medicine still hasn’t made great progress against the key diseases of aging such as cancer, heart attacks, and Alzheimer's. At the same time, medical interventions tend to prolong lifespan at the expense of healthspan. Doctor Attia’s main point is about taking action now rather than waiting until it’s too late to treat an emerging health problem. He stresses the importance of emotional health, nutritional biochemistry (rather than fad diets), and exercise. Optimistically, Attia suggests we begin training now for our "centenarian decathlon”. And why not?

What Else I’m Reading

Data-center investment spree shows no signs of stopping: Despite post-DeepSeek concerns that US companies use too much computing power to train AI, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft will continue to splash vast amounts on centers through 2025 and beyond. Together, they spent $180 billion on data centers last year. Demand is skyrocketing, supply is lagging, and capacity is pre-leased 10 to 15 years before data centers are even built.
Office attendance is becoming a performance metric: Companies are enforcing back-to-work policies and tracking employee attendance with data from turnstiles, computer monitor activity and HR tech. Now if they could also track “performative” workers, then we’d see some real productivity gains.
How Oura broadened its appeal: Oura Health, under Tom Hale, expanded its appeal by ditching the biohacker vibe and targeting everyday users, especially women. They partnered with wellness apps, boosted retail presence, and shifted to a more relatable health message.

📺 Watch - Kobe: The Making of a Legend

I’ve just watched part one of this cradle-to-grave story of Kobe Bryant, starting with his childhood in Italy and complex journey towards NBA stardom. While just about everyone knows of his incredible record on the court, this nuanced series sheds light on other parts of his life, its complications and controversies, and his Black Mamba alter ego. I can’t wait to watch parts two and three.

👂 Listen - Economist Podcast: Introducing “Scam Inc”

It could happen to you! This podcast episode takes a look at transnational organized crime, described as almost as big as the illegal drug trade and even more sophisticated. The Economist crew also discusses how much Trump has achieved after a week of bold tariff moves and touches on an interesting new version of chess that has taken the game by storm.

💡 Think - Tariff Whiplash the New Reality

Well, that was close.

For a moment, we were staring down an all-out trade war with Canada and Mexico—our two largest trading partners—over a “national emergency.” The planned tariffs, set to hit over $800 billion in goods, would have sent prices soaring, disrupted decades of supply chain integration, and put American businesses in a bind.

While the pause on Canada and Mexico avoided the worst economic fallout, the uncertainty alone caused real damage. Markets flinched, gas prices jumped, and companies scrambled to adjust. And for those unprepared for this kind of seesaw approach? Well, that’s a conversation for another day.

The bigger issue? This wasn’t really about any single policy—it was a reminder that when tariffs are used as a blunt instrument, they shake global trust in U.S. trade policy. Trading partners are now watching, wondering if agreements can be ripped up overnight. That kind of instability makes businesses hesitant to invest and foreign governments reluctant to negotiate.

Tariffs can be a tool—sometimes necessary—but they’re not a magic wand. Used strategically, they can counter bad trade practices and create leverage. Think China, and to a lesser extent, India, and some questionable EU policies. But they risk doing more harm than good when broad and reactive.

This time, we dodged an economic hit. But the question remains: how many more trade disruptions are ahead? And when the next one comes, will we be ready for the fallout?

📕 Be sure to check out my book: Fire the Boss, Keep the Love: 10 Jobs, 10 Exits, 10 Lessons.

Whether you're starting your career or a seasoned pro, this book offers fresh perspectives and actionable advice to help you level up. I delve into my own personal career story and career wisdom from top executives to explore topics including:

Career transition strategies
Building lasting professional relationships
Tips for thriving in diverse corporate cultures

Fire the Boss, Keep the Love is a must-read for anyone ready to take charge of their career journey and forge an authentic path to success. Get your copy on Amazon!

💡 Course: Craft Your Career!

As the world of work continues to evolve rapidly, with a more globalized labor market and many companies reducing headcount, the risk of getting left behind is higher than ever.

Throw in the rapid adoption of AI in the workplace and the rise of remote work, and even the most competent and hardworking leaders and professionals are struggling to keep up.

In Craft Your Career, Aaron Cleavinger and I teach you the skills you need to stay ahead of the curve and craft the career you deserve. Check it out here and enroll: http://craftyourcareer.com/