Hello again, dear readers!

How can we respond to a new reality in which  every truck on the road could be carrying a deadly cargo of military drones? In the wake of Ukraine’s extraordinary Operation Spiderweb attack on Russia’s airforce, security analysts are scrambling to understand what this means for the U.S. and how we could possibly defend against such an event. Can we stop and search every truck that comes near a high-value facility? Unlikely.   

Also, The Economist has published two articles recently describing America’s manufacturing sector as a “dream” and pointing to “industrial fantasies”, arguing instead that we should be focusing on jobs of the future. More on that below.

This issue features the usual bunch of AI Insights and recommendations for the week's podcasts, books, shows, charts, and tweets, followed by a final chuckle.

Let’s get going.

A new vulnerability in civilian supply chains

Operation Spiderweb, the breathtaking Ukrainian drone strike on Russian airbases, has astounded military analysts and revealed a groundbreaking strategy that leverages civilian supply chains for military success. By concealing drones inside trucks, Ukraine delivered a significant blow to Russian defenses, showcasing how modern warfare can exploit everyday logistics to achieve remarkable results.

The operation

On June 1, 2025, Ukraine launched a meticulously planned attack involving 117 drones targeting five airbases deep within Russia. This operation demonstrated the ability to penetrate enemy territory using common vehicles. The outcome? Damage exceeding $7 billion to Russian military assets, including nuclear-capable bombers.

This success disrupted Russian operations and sent shockwaves throughout the global military community. Ukraine’s execution of such an intricate strategy underscores the potential for civilian logistics to be weaponized in unprecedented ways.

Asymmetrical warfare

Operation Spiderweb highlights the concept of asymmetrical warfare, where a smaller, less powerful force can leverage innovative tactics to challenge a more powerful adversary. Ukraine’s ability to use civilian trucks to deliver drones against a formidable military like Russia is a prime example of this strategy. For the U.S., this presents a critical concern. As adversaries adopt similar tactics, the U.S. must recognize that traditional military superiority does not guarantee protection against unconventional threats. The ability to exploit civilian infrastructure for military purposes could render even the most advanced defense systems vulnerable.

Civilian supply chains

Using trucks as a delivery mechanism for drones fundamentally alters the landscape of military engagement. Operation Spiderweb showed that small, inexpensive drones could evade traditional detection methods, turning civilian supply chains into effective vectors for military action. 

Suddenly, every truck is suspect. 

Defense dilemma

Defending against such attacks presents a dilemma. Implementing stringent security measures—like searching every truck—would grind the economy to a halt, causing more economic damage than any potential military strike. The logistics network is designed for efficiency, making blanket searches impractical.

The challenge lies in protecting against these threats without stifling economic activity. To disable an explosive drone, strategies include:

1. Physical barriers: Erecting barriers like concrete blast walls can provide some protection, but they are not foolproof. While Russian airbases have begun constructing hardened shelters, these are costly and may not accommodate larger aircraft.
   

2. Electronic warfare: Both Russia and Ukraine use electronic jamming to disrupt drone communication. However, jamming has limitations; it requires extensive coverage and can inadvertently interfere with friendly signals. Additionally, drones like those used in Spiderweb may be equipped with AI systems that allow them to operate autonomously, making them resistant to jamming efforts.
   

3. Kinetic defense: Shooting down drones remains a viable option but presents its own challenges. Conventional surface-to-air missiles often struggle against small drones, requiring advanced targeting capabilities. Automated defenses, such as AI-controlled anti-drone turrets, offer potential solutions but must be capable of effectively handling massed drone attacks.
   

Here are some ways our defense strategies need to evolve to meet this new threat. 

1. Enhanced detection technologies: Developing advanced systems that can monitor low-level airspace without disrupting civilian logistics is crucial. Passive detection methods could identify threats while keeping the supply chain moving.
   

2. Intelligent security protocols: Adopting intelligence-driven measures focused on high-risk areas can enhance security without crippling commerce.
   

3. Public engagement: Building awareness among the public and (particularly) trucking companies fosters a culture of vigilance. Encouraging the reporting of suspicious activity strengthens defenses without impeding normal operations.
   

In my opinion, this last point is the most important. The Russian truckers (one of whom was killed) reportedly had no idea about the cargo of drones they were carrying. If we put the onus on trucking operators to search and secure their own cargos, we’d all feel a little more secure. 

The lessons learned from this operation could reshape airspace management and security protocols, ensuring preparedness for the evolving challenges of modern warfare, especially in the face of asymmetrical threats.

The Future of Work: Is the manufacturing revival a dream?

The idea of reviving American manufacturing has been pushed hard, especially among politicians and industry advocates. But economists are arguing that this idea might be more fantasy than reality, as highlighted in some recent articles from The Economist. The landscape of manufacturing in the U.S. has changed dramatically, and the hurdles to bringing it back are steep.

Back in the late 1940s, America was the manufacturing king, producing over half of the world’s goods. Fast forward to today, and that number has plummeted to just over 10%. With a $1.2 trillion merchandise trade deficit, calls for a return to factory jobs are getting louder. But the data tells a different story.

In the 1970s, nearly 25% of American workers were in manufacturing; now, it’s less than 10%, and only 4% of workers actually operate on the factory floor.

This is a global trend as automation drastically reduces the need for human labor in factories. For instance, in 2023, there were only 295 industrial robots for every 10,000 manufacturing workers in the U.S. Compare that to 470 in China and 1,012 in South Korea, and you see just how far automation has to go.

Politicians like Donald Trump and Joe Biden have both talked about bringing manufacturing jobs back. Trump’s plan involved using tariffs to encourage companies to shift production to the U.S. But those tariffs often raise costs for essential materials and machinery. Almost a third of what American manufacturers use comes from imports.

An expensive workforce

Then there’s the issue of finding workers. The average pay for a production worker in the U.S. is more than double that in China and nearly six times that in Vietnam, and many factories can’t find the skilled workers they need. Industry leaders are frustrated by the lack of skilled workers like welders and electricians, making it even harder to bring production back home.

And let’s not forget about the aging infrastructure. More than half of the roughly 50,000 manufacturing facilities in the U.S. are over 30 years old, with the average plant being around 50 years old. The construction industry isn’t helping either; productivity has dropped by two-fifths since the 1960s. With all the regulations and delays, building new factories is a real challenge.

While the idea of reviving traditional manufacturing jobs sounds appealing, the reality is tough. The jobs that are growing—like those in skilled trades, repair technicians and mechanics—offer good wages and union representation but don’t create the same sense of community that old factory jobs did. Skilled trades are expected to grow by about 5% over the next decade, while manufacturing jobs are likely to keep declining.

So, is a manufacturing revival just a dream? America’s strength in global supply chains and innovation may be more important than trying to recreate an industrial era that’s gone.

AI Insights

1. ChatGPT now sounds more human: A major voice upgrade from OpenAi has introduced subtler tone shifts, realistic pacing, and smoother pauses, leading to more human-like conversations across all paid plans. 

2. Uber to launch fully driverless rides in London: Is this the end of the famous London Cabbie? In partnership with autonomous tech startup Wayve, Uber’s new service will mark the first test of Level 4 rides without a human fallback driver. 

3. Zuckerberg is personally supervising AI research hiring: The Meta CEO is reportedly personally contacting and inviting candidates to meet him at his California home(s) as he assembles a 50-person “superintelligence team”.

The Supply Aside

📕 Read -  Becoming You: The Proven Method for Crafting Your Authentic Life and Career

Forget the usual advice about happiness! In Becoming You, Professor Suzy Welch challenges the so-called “happiness industrial complex,” arguing that happiness shouldn't be a goal to chase but a result of the hard work needed to build a meaningful life. She shares a practical 13-step method that helps you discover who you really are and bridge the gap between your current life and the one you truly want.  Packed with relatable stories and engaging exercises, this book offers a refreshing take on transforming your fears about the future into confidence and clarity.

What Else I’m Reading

• Anthropic CEO gets real about AI jobpocalypse: Dario Amodei told Axios that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to 10-20% within 12 months to five years. No sugar-coating here.

• Amazon coders experience AI job degradation: Coders are complaining that AI-enablement is breaking coding jobs into “simpler tasks to be performed over and over at a rapid clip”, talking of a demand for faster speed, work intensification, and work degradation.  

• Did Apple just kill cold calling? Cold-calling is a big part of several professions, including sales, charities, and yes, recruitment. Apple’s new AI will now pick up a call from unknown numbers and ask them: “Hi, this is Call Screening. Please tell us why you’re calling.” The caller’s answer is then sent to the receiver by text, and they can decide to screen the call or not. 

📺 Watch - The Accidental Twins

“Are you ready to see your doppelganger?” 

The Accidental Twins tells the fascinating story of two pairs of identical male twins who were accidentally switched at birth. Jorge and William were born in a well-equipped Bogotá hospital in December 1988, while Wilbur and Carlos came into the world just a day earlier in a smaller, less capable hospital in Vélez. When baby Carlos got sick, his grandmother took him to the Bogotá hospital, where he was mistakenly swapped for William. This mix-up went unnoticed for 25 years until a friend confused William for Jorge, leading to a shocking discovery that turned their worlds upside down. The revelation hit hard for Carlos and William, who suddenly had to deal with the loss of their birth families and the upheaval of their identities. The film dives into their emotional journey, exploring what it means to find out who you really are when everything you thought you knew gets turned on its head.

👂 Listen - The Knowledge Project: Henry Singleton

Henry Singleton, known as "the ghost of capital allocation," quietly revolutionized American business as the leader of Teledyne, pulling off an impressive average return of 20.4% over almost thirty years. While Wall Street chased trends, Singleton focused on smart, long-term investments, outsmarting competitors and even outpacing Warren Buffett. Charlie Munger called him the best in the game when it comes to operating and deploying capital. Singleton's story is a fantastic lesson in clear thinking and strategic planning, making his insights a must for anyone looking to build a business or make savvy financial moves.

💡 Think - Ask more questions?

Retention isn't just about pay, perks, or ping-pong tables. A powerful new WSJ piece suggests that leaders need to ask better questions if they want to keep their best people. They listed a few, but my favorite was the following: "What trade-offs are you making to stay?" That's a heavy one. It pushes past surface-level engagement and uncovers what employees are really sacrificing, be it flexibility, career growth, or peace of mind. The best part is that these questions aren't just about retention. They build trust, clarify motivations, and help leaders shape roles that actually fit. So maybe it's high time for companies to skip the exit interview and just start asking before people walk out the door. Isn't that a novel idea?

Charts of the Week

Quote of the Week

Tweet of the Week

The Final Chuckle

This issue of The Supply Times is brought to you by Carbon Report, the easiest way to capture Scope 3 emissions data in your procurement process. The best part? Collecting and storing this data from suppliers is free for procurement users. Sign up for a free account on their website, or book a demo directly with their founder, here.

Thanks so much for reading. I’d love to know what you think about this issue and how I can make it more useful to you. If you have suggestions or topics you want to see me address, email me at [email protected]!

-- Naseem