Hello TST'ers!

Welcome back to another illustrious issue of The Supply Times! I'm grateful to have you here.

This time around, we’ll explore the US’s attempts to reclaim the manufacturing throne, as well as the impact of AI on jobs. I’ll also share what I’ve been reading, watching, listening to, and thinking about.

Let’s get it started!

Industry Highlights: Factory Free-For-All

Factories are back, baby, and they’re better than ever!

Well, almost. For the better part of the 20th century, the US made its bones in manufacturing. During World War II, nearly half of the country’s private sector employees were factory workers.

But with the advent of automation and lower overseas costs, companies began outsourcing their manufacturing needs in a serious way. By 2001—not coincidentally the same year China joined the World Trade Organization—the industry that saw strong growth for decades finally stagnated, and then started to dip.

That all changed last year, when the US saw eye-popping growth in manufacturing-related construction.

It also marks the first time the US has outpaced the rest of the world in terms of growth in at least a decade, according to the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center.

The Atlantic Council primarily attributes the uptick to the country’s need to adjust supply lines in a post-Covid, conflict-plagued world, as well as federal incentives related to energy manufacturing.

There’s a potential problem with this expansion, however. While factories are being built at a break-neck pace, there’s still a significant shortage of factory workers. According to the National Association of Manufacturers, there are as many as 800,000 open factory jobs in the US—a shortfall that could balloon to 2.1 million by 2030.

If it’s even possible, the US’s return to its manufacturing heyday will be a gradual one. Employment trends will obviously have to shift, and so will the long-established supply chains that snarl through the far East. No matter how many incentives the federal government offers for “Made in America” goods, it’s going to be tricky for companies to completely extricate themselves from decades of practicing globalization.

It’s something to definitely keep an eye on, though, as concerns over ethical sourcing and national security continue to increase. Will the US be on solid footing by the time China inevitably lands at Taiwan’s doorstep with an eviction notice? For now, the odds don’t seem great.

The Future of Work: A Bot Wrote This Newsletter

It seems like everywhere you look, our world is feeling the impact of AI.

Since developer OpenAI launched its ChatGPT bot last November, experts in every industry have chimed in on how they think the tech will shape the future. Until recently, this was pure speculation, but according to a new joint study by Penn’s Wharton School of Business and OpenAI, bot technology will alter at least 80 percent of all jobs in the near future.

A similar study done by Goldman Sachs is a bit more conservative, estimating automation will affect 63 percent of jobs and cause “significant disruption” to around 300 million full-time workers across big economies.

The upside of Generative AI, Goldman reports, is that it could raise global GDP by seven percent. The downside? Some industries are in serious danger of becoming redundant.

According to a Cornell University white paper, the primary areas that will be most at risk will be in finance and law. This includes financial examiners, actuaries, budget analysts, judges, and procurement clerks.

As AI research capabilities continue to improve, educators will also see their roles in jeopardy. This includes history, law, and English teachers. Why spend time memorizing historic events and iconic literary quotes when a bot can spit it back to you in less than a second?

But don’t start worrying about robots taking your job any time soon, the report reassures. These jobs only account for about seven percent of positions.

Instead, these jobs will be “influenced” by AI—that is, certain aspects of positions will be partially AI generated and then shaped by humans. According to Forbes, the positions that will primarily benefit from AI tech are survey researchers, animal scientists, PR specialists, writers, and mathematicians.

Studies notwithstanding, it’s important to not go into the AI Age thinking that the sky is falling. All technology comes with a concern for the future. It’s happened since the beginning of time, when Socrates warned that the written word would cause “forgetfulness in the learners’ souls.”

Will there be growing pains? Of course. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t continue to innovate and integrate new tech into our lives to make the world a better place. As cultural theorist Paul Virilio once said, “When you invent the ship, you also invent the shipwreck.”

Let’s just hope ChatGPT doesn’t send too many white collar professionals onto the rocks.

The Supply Aside: What I’m Reading, Watching, Listening to, and Thinking About Re: Supply Chain, Work, and Beyond

📕 Read - Forever Employable

I had the pleasure of meeting product management whiz Jeff Gothelf recently, and I took the opportunity to tell him how much I enjoyed his latest book, Forever Employable: How to Stop Looking for Work and Let Your Next Job Find You. It’s all about how Jeff spent 15 years of his career building his personal brand to become an expert in his field. In a world where we are all our own brands, this how to-guide is clutch, and his techniques are instantly applicable no matter where you are in your career journey.

If you’re looking for more wisdom, Jeff also has a great newsletter called Continuous Learning that you can check out, as well as a 90-minute on-demand video course he offers on how to become Forever Employable.

📺 Watch - Succession

Seriously, I cannot get enough of this show. I definitely recommend this show to all who love the world of business. I’ve watched since the beginning, and this final season is really bringing it. I don’t want to spoil too much, but the recent episode had both shock and awe. Kudos to the writers for making such a gutsy call when it comes to a main character. Can’t wait to see how they wrap up this series.

👂 Listen - All In Podcast

What happens when you get four of the world’s greatest business minds in a room together? The All In Podcast. Hosted by powerhouses Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and David Friedberg, this foursome covers everything: economy, tech, society, and of course, what they call their “degenerative” addiction to poker. This recent episode covered AI and the group’s thoughts on the impact it will have on job destruction. Definitely worth a listen.

💡 Think - Ramadan

I’m thinking that it was cool that` we had three major religious occasions overlap this year: Passover, Easter and Ramadan. Interesting tidbit: since Ramadan is on the lunar calendar—which is shorter by 10-12 days than the normal calendar—these religious holidays typically converge only three times a century. I can’t believe we are in the last few days of this 30-day fasting period, which concludes late next week. I know intermittent fasting continues to stay in vogue, but for me, I enjoy this month where we give our body a break from food and water during the hours between sunset and sunrise. Once it starts, it does go by quickly. It’s a great time to reset the body and the mind. Self-discipline, compassion, empathy, and acts of charity are the hallmarks of this time.It’s not always easy, especially as one ages, but overall it’s well worth the effort.

Charts of the Week

Quotes of the Week

Tweets of the Week

Finally...

Thanks so much for reading. I’d love to know what you think about this issue and how I can make it more useful to you.

If you have suggestions or topics you’re interested in seeing me address, shoot me an email at [email protected]!

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Happy reading this weekend!

-- Naseem