Fill 'Er Up

Welcome back to The Supply Times. In this issue, we take a look at how the Russian invasion of Ukraine will impact the global economy and prices at home, as well as how the pandemic has changed tech work forever.

Industry Highlights: Supply Chain Shock & Awe

As the war between Russia and Ukraine rages on, western countries are waging an unprecedented financial war of their own.

According to a recent Economist article, the sanctions western countries have imposed on Russia are so potent, they’ve triggered chaos in the country’s $1.6 trillion economy and prompted President Vladimir Putin to issue nuclear threats.

Sanctions and embargoes have long been a tool for dissuading autocrats from fulfilling their promises of mass genocide and aspirations of world domination, but the West has always stopped short of outright toppling regimes for fear of its repercussions to the global economy.

Not so after this latest invasion. By cutting off Russia’s access to more than half of the country’s $630 billion in foreign reserves, faith in its economy has evaporated. The rouble has fallen by 28% since January, and insane inflation is on the horizon. Experts who once expressed confidence that Russia could endure the consequences of a war with Ukraine are now dubious it can maintain its stability.    

But this economic war is not without its consequences in the West. The Wall Street Journal recently reported Western sanctions have set the stage for faster-rising consumer prices, driving up the manufacturing costs for food, consumer goods, and machinery. Supply chains that were just beginning to show signs of life are once again stalled due to closed Russian ports and restricted airspace. Farmers and their consumers may feel the pinch of rising fertilizer prices, as Russia is one of the world’s primary suppliers and is threatening to suspend exports.

Despite the US only relying on Russia to provide about 8% of its oil, crude oil prices jumped 25% last week, and according to GasBuddy, average prices at the pump reached an all-time high this week, breaking the record set back in 2008 during the Great Recession.

“It’s a dire situation and won’t improve any time soon, GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan said on Monday. “The high prices are likely to stick around not for days or weeks, like they did in 2008, but months.”

The Future of Work - The Death of the Supercampus

Almost two years ago to the day, offices across the country began emptying due to the threat of a highly contagious virus. Americans were asked to hunker down for two weeks at home so medical professionals could “flatten the curve” and we could get back to normal life.

And, well, you know the rest.

Now that the threat of Covid has passed—at least for the time being—companies are inching closer to reopening offices, but one thing is clear: work will never be the same.

This is especially true in the tech world. Mega-campuses like the ones built by Google, Apple, and Amazon felt futuristic in 2020, but they already seem like cute relics more suited for Disney’s Tomorrowland. Many tech leaders think work flexibility will be a staple moving forward. Hiring will be more geographically dispersed, and people will spend their time differently than they did before.

“Our sense of place has been permanently disrupted,” former Facebook remote work head Annie Dean told The Wall Street Journal. Dean predicts executives who force employees back into offices in rigid ways will lose credibility with their workforces.

Twitter is one company that’s been on the forefront of workplace flexibility, announcing last week that they’d allow their employees to work from anywhere they wished. “Wherever you feel most productive and creative is where you will work, and that includes working from home full-time forever,” CEO Parag Agrawal wrote in a statement on Twitter.

A feature of this new, geographically dispersed workforce for many tech companies is the inclusion of “asynchronous work” into daily routines. Unlike a traditional workplace, where tasks were performed by multiple team members at the same time, asynchronous work allows employees to work on tasks when they choose, giving them more flexibility and freedom. 

In November, project management software company Trello wrote on their company blog that asynchronous work is “a new work revolution,” similar to the way the assembly line revolutionized the way we manufactured cars. It claims the practice’s benefits include more equity among employees, more efficient communication, and increased opportunities to attract high-quality talent.

To be fair, some companies are working hard to lure workers back by renovating spaces, using software so staff can coordinate visits and dangling upgraded food to make offices more appealing. They want to create a pull, not a push. We have a client that’s actually paying a monthly stipend to entice workers back to their NYC offices. But only till the mandate kicks in: by June everyone has to be back full time, five days a week.

Accenture's employees don’t have a return-to-the-office mandate, but the company hopes its new Manhattan building will draw them back. Amenities include sweeping views, tech-free “reflection zones,” and yoga and wellness areas, and dozens of conference rooms.

My favorite was a company referring to them as work studios instead of offices. A rose by any other name?

The Supply Aside: What I’m Reading, Watching, Listening to, and Thinking About 

RE: Supply Chain, Work, and Beyond

• 📕 Read: I’m looking forward to next week’s release of CEO Excellence: The Six Mindsets That Distinguish the Best Leaders from the Rest by Carolyn Dewar, Scott Keller, and Vikram Malhotra. These three senior partners at McKinsey spent the last several years interviewing dozens of the world’s top-performing chief executives and distilling their advice down to six distinct characteristics.

• 📺 Watch: It seems like dramatized company origin stories are going to be big this year, and one I’m intrigued about is the Showtime original anthology series Super Pumped: The Battle For Uber. It stars Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Kyle Chandler, and Uma Thurman and follows the rise and fall of Uber founder, Travis Kalanick. I love a good meteoric business rise, so let’s see if this will live up to the billing.  

• 👂 Listen: LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman’s podcast Masters of Scale has been a good companion on my commute lately. In each episode, Reid shares company success stories and how they grow—as he puts it—“from zero to a gazillion.” It’s got high-profile guests like Kayak co-founder Paul English and iconic VC guru Mark Andreessen, amongst others, sharing great tips about how they grew their business the right way.

• 💡 Think: Of course I’m thinking about how the Russia-Ukraine conflict is going to affect global business, but more importantly, I’m wondering about China. Whose side are they on? As Thomas Friedman pointed out recently in a New York Times column, China has the economic power to topple Russia in a matter of weeks. So why doesn’t it? Friedman thinks it might have to do with the fact that they’ve got a good thing going right now, and crushing Russia with sanctions might upend their financial apple cart. Their neutrality could also be an implicit blessing of Russia’s actions—one they’d hope Putin would return should they decide to do something similar with Taiwan.Hopefully not.

CHART OF THE WEEK

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“There is one thing stronger than all the armies of the world, and that is an idea whose time has come.”

— Victor Hugo

TWEET OF THE WEEK

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