Delivery Wars!

The Supply Times Issue #74

Naseem Malik
March 13, 2025

Hello again, dear readers!

Walmart’s strategy of transforming its huge network of stores into logistics hubs is working. While Amazon has historically dominated e-commerce, Walmart is rapidly closing the gap by dominating same-day deliveries, controlling 9% of U.S. e-commerce sales and reporting a staggering $681 billion in revenue for 2024—just shy of Amazon’s $638 billion. Read more below.

Also, I take a look at the employee monitoring paradox: a sharp increase in digital surveillance of employees is leading to an even more dramatic decrease in trust. You won’t be surprised to learn that this impacts productivity. More details below.

This issue features the usual bunch of AI Insights and recommendations for the week's podcasts, books, shows, charts, and tweets, followed by a final chuckle.

Let’s get going.

Industry Highlights: How Walmart is Racing Past Amazon

Gone are the days when Walmart was viewed as a lumbering giant in the face of e-commerce innovation. Instead, the retail behemoth is now poised to challenge Amazon's dominance, especially with its same-day delivery capabilities.

Let’s start with the numbers: last year alone, Walmart delivered five billion items on the same day they were ordered. This figure has doubled since 2023. With over 4,700 stores sprinkled across the U.S., Walmart can now deliver to 93% of U.S. households, making it a serious contender in the same-day delivery race.

Image: The Mercury News

Walmart’s strategy hinges on leveraging its extensive network of 4,700 physical stores and transforming them into fast-delivery hubs. These locations not only serve as retail outlets but also function as logistical powerhouses that can fulfill online orders in record time.

While Amazon has long been the leader in e-commerce, Walmart is catching up quickly. Currently, Amazon controls about 41% of all U.S. e-commerce sales, while Walmart lags behind at 9%. However, the gap is narrowing, and Walmart is not just sitting idly by. The company reported $681 billion in revenue for 2024, just shy of Amazon's $638 billion—and the share performance reflects this growing influence.

Walmart has also innovated with its delivery system called Spark, which relies on a fleet of freelance drivers to fulfill online orders. This system allows Walmart to tap into a vast pool of gig economy workers. Thousands of Spark drivers are on the streets, picking up orders from stores and delivering them to customers’ doors. On average, these drivers earn about $10 per delivery, plus tips.

Beyond groceries, Walmart is expanding its offerings to include a variety of products like clothing, home decor, and prescription medicines. More than a third of Walmart's online customers are willing to pay extra for swift deliveries.

What’s particularly interesting is how Walmart is reaching into small towns and rural areas, expanding its same-day delivery coverage from 76% of U.S. households two years ago to 93% today. Meanwhile, the chain is stepping up its drone delivery game with a significant expansion in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. They’re gearing up to reach about 1.8 million more households, which means 75% of the DFW population will soon have access to this service with orders arriving in as little as 10 to 30 minutes.

Meanwhile, Amazon’s Prime Air drone delivery service is operating in areas of California, Texas, Arizona, and launching in the UK and Italy. The company recently won FAA approval for beyond-line-of-sight delivery for its MK30 drone near Phoenix.

As Amazon continues to grapple with its challenges in the grocery delivery sector—despite its vast infrastructure—Walmart’s focus on groceries has proven to be a smart move. With its combination of physical stores, an army of freelance drivers, and a keen understanding of consumer needs, Walmart’s delivery empire is set to give Amazon a serious challenge this year.

The Future of Work: Trust Takes a Hit as Surveillance Soars

While employee monitoring is reaching unprecedented heights, employee trust is plummeting. It seems that as companies ramp up their surveillance efforts, they inadvertently create an environment where employees feel less valued and more scrutinized. Let’s explore how these practices hinder productivity and trust.

Recent data, as reported by Computer World, reveals that 71% of employees are now digitally monitored, marking a 30% increase from just a year ago. This surge in oversight comes at a time when many organizations are grappling with the complexities of hybrid work. Companies, eager to ensure productivity, are deploying specialized software that tracks everything from online activity to keystrokes—often without employees' knowledge. This raises a crucial question: at what cost?

Gartner reveals there’s been a breakdown of trust. Only 52% of employees report trusting their organizations, while 63% of employers claim to trust their employees. Mounting surveillance is only exacerbating the divide.

As companies struggle with return-to-office mandates that often fall flat, many resort to increasing monitoring measures. A survey by Owl Labs found that nearly half of employees indicated that their employers had added or enhanced tracking software in the past year. The result? A workplace atmosphere where employees feel compelled to fake productivity rather than actually being productive.

The implications of this monitoring culture are profound. According to ExpressVPN, 49% of employees would consider leaving their jobs if surveillance increased, and 24% would even accept a pay cut to escape it. This is a clear indication that employees are prioritizing autonomy and trust over financial incentives. 86% of employees believe companies should disclose their tracking practices.

Monitoring not only affects morale but also stifles creativity. Gartner highlights that in low-trust organizations, only 17% of employees feel comfortable bringing new ideas to their managers, compared to 70% in high-trust environments. When employees are constantly monitored, they may feel less inclined to take risks or innovate, fearing that their every move is being scrutinized.

What about the psychological toll of constant surveillance? Something to keep in mind is that this new phenomenon is likely to impact generations in different ways. A worker nearing retirement, for example, might feel deeply uncomfortable with a sharp increase in monitoring, while an entry-level employee will have never experienced any other way of working and therefore find the low-trust environment normal.

So, what’s the solution? Organizations need to strike a balance between oversight and autonomy. Transparent communication about monitoring practices is essential. When employees understand the reasons behind surveillance and see it as a tool for support rather than control, they are more likely to accept it.

An article from Entrepreneur suggests four rules for ethical employee monitoring:

Make sure employees know they are being monitored.
Only monitor employees within working hours.
Don’t collect personal data through monitoring software.
Use the collected data for business improvement (otherwise, why are you doing it?)

What bothers me is that employee monitoring often misses the point by focusing on tracking processes and activities instead of measuring meaningful outcomes and overall productivity. Who cares if your star employee takes a midday siesta, so long as they’re hitting their targets and producing brilliant outcomes?

AI Insights

AirBNB to build AI concierge-in-your-pocket: The AI system would deliver personalized recommendations and support for guests, along with using host knowledge and local expertise to match travelers’ preferences.
U.S. Government launches Chat DOGE: In the most significant government deployment of conversational AI to date, the U.S. General Services Administration has launched an AI assistant designed to streamline government services (replace public servants).
Celine Dion battles AI-generated deepfake songs: Fans have listened to Dion’s cover of a gospel song “Heal Me Lord” one million times, along with duets with Whiteney Housten and Charlie Puth. The trouble is, they’re AI fakes. The singer has issued a warning to fans about the fakes and is a leading figure in the fight against AI’s "assault on creativity.” Dion’s legal team is pursuing legal action against the multiple platforms hosting these songs.

The Supply Aside

📕 Read - Quiet by Susan Cain

Are we a nation of extroverts? Do Americans talk too much? People in other countries seem to think so. Graham Greene even titled one of his most famous novels “The Quiet American,” using the word “quiet” the same way that “good” is used in the parable of the Good Samaritan - that is, a rare occurrence.

According to a YouGov survey, 39% of Americans identify as introverts. The problem is that so many of our institutions - our schools, colleges, workplaces, and political world - are set up to reward and promote the loudest talkers rather than those with the best ideas. This is the central thesis of Susan Cain’s Quiet.

Cain explores the strengths of introverts in a society that favors extroversion. She challenges the idea that success is tied to being outgoing, showcasing the unique contributions of famous introverts like Gates and Zuckerberg. This book promotes a broader understanding of leadership and creativity, making it essential reading for anyone interested in the value of diverse personalities and the power of silence. Quiet spent eight years on the New York Times bestseller list.

What Else I’m Reading

Companies Need to Work Harder to Convince Staff of AI Benefits: Companies are finding it tough to convince their employees of the benefits of AI, which is causing a disconnect and leaving many feeling unsure about its potential. Interestingly, those who are more familiar with AI tend to be more optimistic, but a significant number still feel they lack the training and support needed to really make the most of these tools in their work.
The Wirecard Fugitive: This article explores the case of Jan Marsalek, the former Wirecard executive who has become involved with Russian intelligence. Teaming up with Bulgarian IT expert Orlin Roussev, they ran a spy network from the UK, targeting journalists and dissidents using advanced surveillance techniques amid the Ukraine conflict.
Disney Parks Chief Sees Fortnite as Key to Its Future: Josh D’Amaro, Disney's parks chief, is gearing up to take Disney into the digital age by partnering with Epic Games, the creators of Fortnite. D’Amaro's $60 billion vision is about blending the magic of Disney with the interactive world of gaming, ensuring that a new generation of fans can enjoy Disney in innovative ways.

📺 Watch - “MetalHead” from Black Mirror

Some episodes of Black Mirror stick with you, and “Metalhead” is one of them. The episode's protagonist, Maxine, embodies sheer human survival as she navigates a bleak landscape shot in black and white, hunted by a robotic dog programmed for relentless pursuit. What struck me is that the dog - essentially an automated security system - displays a creepy combination of intelligence and mindlessness that makes it impervious to human reasoning.

By the way, Boston Dynamics’ “Spot” robotic dog is currently selling for around $75,000. In other news, OpenAI disbanded its entire AI safety and ethics team late last year.

👂 Listen - Morgan Housel Podcast: All the Different Ways My Life Could Have Turned Out

In this podcast episode, Morgan Housel details his experience of asking ChatGPT to tell him about all the different ways his life could have turned out, and is stunned by the results. I found myself musing on this same question while I was writing my book (available here!). People often talk about the importance of planning your career journey, but the reality is that career (and life) paths are rarely so structured and linear. There are elements of The Butterfly Effect here, or perhaps a better analogy would be Sliding Doors - much of our lives are shaped by small decisions and chance encounters rather than by sticking to a plan.

Housel finds the experience humbling, and observes that it has shaken the foundations of his plan for retirement. Who knows what will happen next? ChatGPT certainly doesn’t.

💡 Think - The Retail Apocalypse That Never Was

For years, we’ve been told brick-and-mortar retail is on life support, doomed by e-commerce and changing consumer habits. It turns out that the narrative was mostly nonsense. Sure, some big names disappeared, but what did we get in return? More stores, better accessibility, and lower prices in key categories.

Between 2010 and 2019, the number of general merchandise stores actually grew—driven by supercenters, dollar stores, and discount retailers. Walmart, Costco, and Burlington have been expanding, and even “dead” brands like Toys “R” Us and Barnes & Noble are making comebacks. The pandemic-era e-commerce surge? It fizzled out, with brick-and-mortar bouncing back stronger than expected.

The real danger? Not Amazon killing retail, but politicians regulating it to death. Blocking big-box expansion or restricting dollar stores might sound like consumer protection, but it actually limits choices and drives up prices—especially for lower-income shoppers.

Retail isn’t dying. It’s evolving. Perhaps the real threat is a government that supposedly “fixes” but only does more harm than good.

📕 Be sure to check out my book: Fire the Boss, Keep the Love: 10 Jobs, 10 Exits, 10 Lessons.

Whether you're starting your career or a seasoned pro, this book offers fresh perspectives and actionable advice to help you level up. I delve into my own personal career story and career wisdom from top executives to explore topics including:

Career transition strategies
Building lasting professional relationships
Tips for thriving in diverse corporate cultures

Fire the Boss, Keep the Love is a must-read for anyone ready to take charge of their career journey and forge an authentic path to success. Get your copy on Amazon!

💡 Course: Craft Your Career!

As the world of work continues to evolve rapidly, with a more globalized labor market and many companies reducing headcount, the risk of getting left behind is higher than ever.

Throw in the rapid adoption of AI in the workplace and the rise of remote work, and even the most competent and hardworking leaders and professionals are struggling to keep up.

In Craft Your Career, Aaron Cleavinger and I teach you the skills you need to stay ahead of the curve and craft the career you deserve. Check it out here and enroll: http://craftyourcareer.com/

Charts of the Week

American manufacturers are paying much higher prices for aluminum, steel and copper than rival plants overseas. The surge is partly driven by U.S. manufacturers’ efforts to build up stocks before tariffs on metals come into effect.