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China’s EV Overload Nightmare
The Supply Times Issue #85

Image: South China Morning Post
Hello again, dear readers!
You may have heard that U.S. corn growers are facing steep price declines due to overproduction, to the point where the government may have to step in with financial assistance. A similar story is playing out in China, but not with crops. The EV market is in turmoil, oversaturated with 130+ manufacturers and gross overcapacity kicking off a cut-throat price war. More on that below.
Also, instead of complaining about how Gen Z doesn’t seem to fit into the usual workplace dynamics, some companies are taking action by forming intergenerational teams. This is turning out to be hugely beneficial for boosting innovation, reverse mentoring, improving empathy, and more.
This issue features the usual bunch of AI Insights and recommendations for the week's podcasts, books, shows, charts, and tweets, followed by a final chuckle.
Let’s get going.

Image: Sam Woolley, InsideEVs.
Industry Highlights: Chinese EV Makers Reap the Consequences of Overcapacity
You know an industry is in trouble when it takes six months to pay suppliers.
The ambitious push by the Chinese government to dominate the global electric vehicle (EV) sector has backfired, plunging the industry into a fierce price war driven by chronic overcapacity, as reported by The Economist and InsideEVs. What began as a government carefully crafted strategy to support domestic car manufacturers has devolved into a battleground where only the fittest will survive.
A Market Saturated
Currently, around 130 domestic companies are competing for market share in China, but very few are producing vehicles in substantial numbers. If all factories operated at maximum capacity, they could generate double the number of cars as there are consumers. This surplus has ignited a brutal price war, resulting in a 19% drop in average vehicle prices over the last two years, bringing them down to about 165,000 yuan ($23,000). Some models have even seen reductions as steep as 35%. While total sales are still projected to grow by 7% this year, reaching around 24 million vehicles, the profitability of these firms has sharply declined, and many are incurring losses.

Dwindling Profits
The financial strain from the price war is evident across the board, affecting both domestic and foreign manufacturers. In the first five months of 2025, the total net profits for the industry, including foreign players within China, plummeted by 12% year-on-year, totaling 178 billion yuan, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. Even the more successful local companies are feeling the pressure; for instance, Geely, which holds about 10% of the market, saw its net profits drop by 14% in the first half of the year.
Notably, on September 1st, BYD (now the largest carmaker in China) announced a staggering 30% decline in net profits for the second quarter, despite a 14% increase in revenues. Suppliers are also bearing the brunt, with reports of some shutting down due to delays in payment from carmakers that can last up to six months.
Foreign Competitors Struggling
Foreign manufacturers, who once dominated the car landscape in China, are now grappling with the rapid innovation of their Chinese counterparts and are struggling to compete on price. The market share of domestic brands has surged from 34% in 2020 to 69% in the first four months of 2025, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Government Concerns
The turmoil has raised alarms within the Chinese government. In May, significant price cuts initiated by BYD triggered another wave of aggressive discounts, leading to complaints about “involution”, a term denoting destructive hyper-competition. In response, Chinese officials summoned industry leaders in June, urging them to halt price reductions and expedite payments to suppliers. Several major companies have committed to settling debts within 60 days.
An Uncertain Future
Despite official appeals to curb price slashing, the trend appears persistent. Even after calls for restraint, companies continue to employ indirect price reductions through incentives such as free insurance, zero-interest financing, and complimentary charging. A senior executive at BYD made it clear that the industry is overcrowded, suggesting nearly 100 firms need to exit the market.

Failed Merger Efforts
Efforts to facilitate mergers among large state-owned enterprises have repeatedly faltered due to local governmental resistance. A lingering presence of small, loss-making local firms, drawn to the industry by the rapid growth of the 2010s and generous credit, may continue, even as some startups have collapsed. These companies provide employment and prestige for local officials, who are often reluctant to abandon such projects.
Survival of the Fittest
Ultimately, the ongoing price war may favor the most robust players in the market. Leading brands like BYD, Chery, and Geely, along with startups such as Xpeng and Li Auto, are either profitable or nearing profitability. Complicating matters, tech giants like Huawei and Xiaomi have also successfully ventured into vehicle manufacturing.
Many have sought to increase profitability through exports. From 2021 to 2024, the number of vehicles shipped overseas quadrupled, enabling China to surpass Japan as the world's largest car exporter, according to Rhodium Group. In the first half of 2025, exports reached nearly 3.5 million units, reflecting an 18% increase from the previous year.
Global Dynamics
Europe remains a primary market for Chinese EVs, despite the European Union's imposition of significant tariffs in 2024 aimed at countering perceived unfair competition. In the first half of 2025, Chinese brands captured 5.2% of sales in Western Europe, up from 3.1% the previous year, according to Schmidt Automotive Research. This fierce domestic competition has equipped Chinese firms to withstand EU tariffs.
Conversely, foreign automakers relying on China for profit face a challenging situation. American companies like Ford and General Motors, hindered by 100% tariffs domestically, may see their presence in China diminish. While Japan's Toyota has performed relatively well, it too is losing ground. Nissan is experiencing a sharp decline in China, and European manufacturers are struggling both in China and against the rising Chinese brands at home.
The ongoing price war will compel the most resilient companies to become even more efficient and innovative. In the end, the most powerful firms in China are likely to emerge stronger, both in their domestic market and on the global stage.

Image: SHRM.org
The Future of Work: Embrace Mixed-Aged Teams to Unlock Gen Z’s Potential
What if, instead of grumbling about Gen Z, we celebrated their unique traits and combined them with the wisdom of older colleagues? The challenges are real, but so are the opportunities … especially when we harness the power of mixed-aged teams. A big thanks to this Financial Times article about managing Gen Z for the inspiration.
Gen Z: A Fresh Take on Success
Growing up in a digital age and launching their careers amid a pandemic, Gen Z has developed a distinctive mindset about work and success. As Janine Chamberlin from LinkedIn UK puts it, “They’re ambitious and eager to grow, but their definition of success looks different.”
Can you believe that 43% of Gen Z workers in the UK would consider taking a pay cut for better opportunities that offer flexibility and autonomy? This shift signals that traditional workplace norms might not cut it anymore. Employers need to adapt, creating environments that don’t just meet Gen Z’s expectations but also tap into their innovative spirit.

Image: Majorplayers.co.uk
The Magic of Intergenerational Teams
Imagine the possibilities when Gen Z teams up with seasoned pros. Bobby Duffy, director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, argues that companies should focus on fostering intergenerational collaboration. “We’ve become so separated in other spheres that misunderstanding and stereotypes abound,” he says. Organizations can break down these barriers and cultivate a more inclusive workplace by forming mixed-age teams.
Older generations come with a treasure trove of experience and institutional knowledge that can elevate the work dynamic. Pairing Gen Z’s digital savvy with the insights of Gen X and Boomers can spark some genuine innovation. Sujay Saha, founder of Cortico-X, champions reverse-mentorship programs where younger employees guide their older counterparts through new technologies.
Facing the Hurdles Head-On
Let’s not pretend mixed-aged teams will always get along. Each generation has its own quirks in communication and work ethics, which can lead to clashes. For example, Gen Z’s craving for instant feedback and rapid career progression might ruffle some feathers among older colleagues. Jordan Schwarzenberger, co-founder of Arcade Media, captures this urgency perfectly: “We’re not waiting around anymore.” This can create tension, especially if older generations (like Gen X, the “forgotten generation”) feel their hard-earned experience is being overlooked.

Building a Culture of Empathy
So, how do we navigate these challenges? With empathy. Tanya Cooper, global people director at Arup, points out that generational differences often aren’t as stark as they seem. Creating a culture of empathy encourages open dialogue, allowing employees to express their needs and aspirations without fear of judgment. When everyone feels heard, it paves the way for smoother collaboration.
Looking Ahead: A More Diverse Workplace
Rebecca Robins, an organizational culture expert, highlights: “For the first time in history, we have five generations at work.” This diversity offers a goldmine of perspectives, which can lead to better decision-making and innovation. If you’re looking for a guide on how to build successful intergenerational teams, be sure to check out this advice from Harvard Business Publishing.

AI Insights
Ex-Google devs launch hyperpersonalized AI audio streams: Huxe includes personalised daily briefings (curated and contextualized email, calendar, and news), Live Stations on the topics you care about (industries, hobbies), and AI-generated podcasts on any topic, just for you. An exciting leap in hyperpersonalization, but will this tech push us deeper into our own silos?
Designers are coding now? You can now turn Figma mockup designs into code with Claude Code, which sees mockups at the data level (such as component hierarchies, design tokens, auto-layout rules) - and translates them into production-ready code.
Alibabi rolls out one-trillion parameter AI model: Qwen3-Max can code and perform agentic tasks with minimal human input. The link above takes you to a highly technical blog, but the gist is that the model outperforms Claude Opus 4 and DeepSeek-V3.1 in some areas.

The Supply Aside

Elon Musk was complaining earlier this week that Australia’s upcoming national social media ban for children under 16 “violates human rights”. The ban, which comes into effect in December 2025, places the onus on tech companies to prevent access to kids through age verification. It will be easy enough for kids with VPN know-how to bypass, but it’s a start. The Australian e-safety commissioner has slapped down Musk’s argument and reminded him that X will face fines of up to $50 million for non-compliance.
I was thinking about this world-first legislation when I picked up Jean Twenge’s 10 Rules for Raising Kids in a High-Tech World, full of advice on how parents can stop smartphones, social media, and gaming from taking over their children’s lives. How can we find a balanced relationship with technology in a time of overwhelming technological intrusion? Twenge’s advice includes (like the Australians) a “no social media under 16” boundary, and creating no-phone zones like bedrooms and dinners.
What Else I’m Reading
Tech Layoffs are hurting Seattle’s Economy: Why are overqualified tech experts with master’s degrees applying for minimum wage jobs at Starbucks? Why are so many Seattle houses suddenly up for sale? Why are Seattle restaurants closing and retail stores struggling? You guessed it: tech companies are laying people off again, and Seattle is feeling the pain.
The Trade-Offs of a Portfolio Working Life: The author describes the challenges of the “plural, portfolio path”, i.e. high-level freelancing. Challenges include juggling competing, asynchronous demands, isolation, no promotions to pursue, and the loss of influence.
Don’t Fall for the Rigged College Game: Jeffrey Selingo takes a hard look at the college admissions process, calling it rigged against most students. He points out that the pressure to get into elite schools makes seniors apply to more and more selective colleges. While these top schools create an illusion of quality, research shows that students at all types of colleges have similar engagement and satisfaction levels. Selingo suggests that families should focus on finding the right fit for their kids instead of chasing prestige.

How do you react to life’s curveballs? This is an uplifting TED talk from cognitive scientist Dr Maya Shankar on how a challenging moment or unexpected change can inspire transformation. Shankar, who was a former senior science advisor to the White House during Obama’s second term and the first Behavioral Science advisor to the United Nations, offers three questions to ask when facing uncertainty that will help you embrace change:
How might this change what I’m capable of?
How might this change what I value?
How might this change how I define myself?
👂 Listen - The Knowledge Project: Benedict Evans

In this episode, titled The Patterns Everyone Else Misses, Evans tells us to forget the hype: AI isn’t the new electricity, although it does represent the biggest “platform change” since the iPhone. This is a great discussion about the questions we aren’t asking about AI, its ability to make something original, Evans’s advice for students in the age of AI, and his definition of success.
💡 Think - The Great Flattening
AI is blowing up the corporate pyramid we’ve clung to for decades. A recent WSJ piece on org chart restructuring nails something I’ve been seeing everywhere: middle management is becoming the new endangered species. Jensen Huang managing over 50 direct reports? That’s not chaos. That’s efficiency. When AI handles coordination and information flow, the traditional management layers begin to appear like expensive bottlenecks. The “barbell” org, with loads of individual contributors and a slim leadership tier, might just be here to stay.
But the real shift is deeper. Companies are finally being forced to confront a question they’ve avoided for years. What value does each role actually add? When you can rent a GPU instead of hiring three engineers, or use AI to generate a report that used to take weeks, the math changes fast. And when Moderna merges HR and IT under one exec, that’s not just an org chart cleanup. It’s a signal that workforce and tech strategy are now the same conversation. The smartest companies no longer manage people and systems separately. They’re building integrated ecosystems that bring both together.
Charts of the Week



Quote of the Week

"You drown not by falling into a river, but by staying submerged in it."
- Novelist Paulo Coelho, reminding us to fix our mistakes quickly.
Tweet of the Week

The Final Chuckle

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Thanks so much for reading. I’d love to know what you think about this issue and how I can make it more useful to you. If you have suggestions or topics you want to see me address, email me at [email protected]!
-- Naseem