Hello there, fellow human supply management professionals!

Like me, you’ve probably been reassured many times that AI won’t take our jobs. Instead, AI will work “alongside” us, freeing up our time to concentrate on more worthy tasks while still being gainfully employed - right?

Maybe not. When a top venture capitalist predicts that AI could replace 80% of tasks in 80% of jobs within 10 years, it’s time to pay attention.

But first, we explore how US manufacturing is experiencing a remarkable resurgence. High-tech facilities are springing up not only in traditional midwest manufacturing areas but spreading throughout the southern states. The sector would look unstoppable if it wasn’t for a worrying shortage of “cleantech” skills that threatens to hamstring the recovery.

And as per usual, there are plenty of other goodies to consume, including my recommendations for podcasts, books, and shows, along with charts and tweets of the week.

Let's get to it.

Industry Highlights: Skills Gap Threatens Manufacturing Resurgence

Picture this: state-of-the-art factories brimming with Industry 4.0 tech, ready to churn out the next generation of EVs and semiconductors, yet there's one glaring issue - there aren't enough skilled workers to operate them. This is the predicament the United States is facing amidst a manufacturing resurgence.

The recent uplift in US manufacturing is a remarkable comeback story. It began with the pandemic, which, ironically, revitalized the sector. As shipping costs soared and global supply chains faced unprecedented disruptions, companies scrambled to reshore, nearshore, or even ‘friend-shore.’

Yet the manufacturing landscape has evolved even as this reshoring process has taken place. Traditional industries are slowing down, and many workers are now eyeing "cleantech" jobs backed by federal subsidies. These positions are hailed as the future of the industry but they've been slow to materialize at scale.

To accelerate this transformation, the Biden administration is investing heavily in projects like electric vehicle manufacturing and semiconductor production. Industry giants such as Intel, Micron, Analog Devices, and Taiwan Semiconductor are pledging substantial sums to create a multitude of "good-paying jobs". But are they good-paying enough to attract highly skilled workers when other sectors pay so much better?

Meanwhile, America’s industrial heartland is shifting from the Midwest to the South. The Economist suggests companies are attracted to this end of the nation by the availability of land, affordable power, and access to a larger labor pool.

All eyes are on the semiconductor sector. While these companies are ramping up hiring efforts, they are grappling with a scarcity of workers possessing the specialized skills required. It's a situation where the number of job openings far outpaces the supply of graduates with the requisite qualifications. The Financial Times reports that companies are working in-house and with colleges to boost technical expertise as demand soars.

Despite these hurdles, the White House is bullish about the future of manufacturing jobs. September marked a significant milestone, with over 13 million Americans employed in the sector; a level not seen since 2008.

Some segments of the industrial labor market, especially in power generation and clean energy, are flourishing. Importantly, more clean energy jobs are going to women, and these roles are growing at a faster rate than traditional fossil-fuel jobs.

The path forward for American manufacturing looks promising, but the skills gap is the critical factor that could either propel the sector to new heights or act as a stumbling block.

The Future of Work: AI And The Post-Work Future

Did you catch the WSJ’s Tech Live conference? Two stand-out sessions about AI and the future of the workforce featured venture capitalist Vinod Khosla and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

In my experience, opinions about whether the US will face massive job losses due to AI range from glib reassurance to downright panic. When thought leaders like Khosla and Altman tell us that 8 in 10 jobs could disappear by 2033, it pays to listen.

Khosla, founder of venture capital firm Khosla Ventures, believes AI has the potential to replace as much as 80% of tasks in 80% of existing jobs within the next decade. But what about the remaining 20%?

“Even an AI needs to know when to call in a human specialist,” he said. Khosla envisions that AI will lead to great abundance, productivity growth, increased GDP … but exacerbate income disparity (which is already alarming):

If you’re a young person wondering if or how to specialize to prepare for an AI future, Khosla’s recommendation is - don’t specialize at all: “Get as broad an education as possible because you don’t know what will be relevant,” he said. (Read more about why employers are increasingly preferring generalists to specialists here).

I recently wrote an article about how the four-day workweek was enabled by AI-driven productivity boosts. One way to look at this is as a step in the gradual winding down to having no work at all. Khosla believes “the need to work in society will disappear within 25 years” - meaning the work-free AI “utopia” could come a lot sooner than many of us assumed.

But the transition could be messy. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman warned that as jobs disappear, the changes are likely to hit some people in the economy more seriously than others. “We are really going to have to do something about this transition,” he said, urging society to confront the speed at which the change happens.

This inevitably raises questions about what a post-work society may look like. Altman believes a universal basic income will not be enough. “There’s a great satisfaction in expressing yourselves, being useful and contributing back to society,” he said. “That's not going away. That is such an innate human desire.”

AI Insights

• Nvidia told to immediately halt export of high-end AI chips to China: Nvidia has been instructed by the US government to immediately cease exporting certain high-end artificial intelligence chips to China. Originally, these restrictions were set to be enforced 30 days after October 17, when the Biden administration unveiled measures preventing countries such as China, Iran, and Russia from obtaining advanced AI chips produced in the US. The US export ban applies to Nvidia's modified advanced AI chips, the A800 and H800, both developed for the Chinese market to comply with previous restrictions.

• Apple to unveil its countermove to ChatGPT: Caught flat-footed by the emergence of ChatGPT and other generative AI, Apple is now playing catch-up by actively integrating AI across its products. This includes revamping Siri to offer a smarter version, enhancing iOS with AI features for better user interactions, and integrating generative AI into development tools. Apple is also exploring AI applications in services like Apple Music and productivity tools. The deployment approach may be on-device, cloud-based, or a combination.

• Microsoft and ChatGPT soar while Alphabet sinks: Alphabet's shares fell nearly 9.6% as its cloud unit's growth hit a three-year low, lagging behind Microsoft, which saw a 2.8% gain. Investors worry that Google's cloud business may lose market share to Microsoft in the AI-driven sector. Microsoft's Azure platform thrived as businesses adopted AI features, while Alphabet's cloud unit struggled with its heavy reliance on smaller clients.

The Supply Aside: What I’m Reading, Watching, Listening to, and Thinking About Re: Supply Chain, Work, and Beyond

📕 Read - Going Infinite by Michael Lewis

Moneyball author Michael Lewis was halfway through his biography of one-time cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried when the crypto-bro’s world spectacularly imploded. Going Infinite is a fascinating account of what happened, and the sheer scale of the money involved (SBF was seen as having a shot at becoming the world’s first trillionaire.) Critics of this book claim Lewis severely misjudged SBF’s character - see what you think.

What Else I’m Reading

• Biden to unveil AI executive order next week: The order, seen as the government’s most significant attempt to date to regulate AI, will require advanced AI models to undergo assessments before they can be used by federal workers.

• Ford strike edges closer to resolution: The United Auto Workers union reportedly made a counteroffer to Ford that proposes a 25 percent general wage increase over the life of a new four-year contract.

• Pre-cooling homes could dramatically reduce energy usage: A new study has found that if people cool their homes in the afternoon when solar energy is plentiful, they will use less electricity between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. when the grid is most at risk of rolling blackouts.

📺 Watch - BECKHAM

It’s the 1998 FIFA World Cup. England is playing Argentina in a high-stakes match when star player David Beckham is knocked to the ground by Diego Simeone. Face-down and angry, he lashes out with a studded boot and is red-carded (sent off) for his efforts. England loses the game and it isn’t long before fans and the media turn on Beckham.

Today, David Beckham sees this as a pivotal moment in his career which led to a huge leap in his maturity. Netflix’s BECKHAM is packed with lessons about turning failure into opportunities for growth, overcoming hurdles, and showing vulnerability even when you’re the best of the best.

👂 Listen - Working It Podcast: What’s The Point of Meetings?

Meetings, meetings. Managers spend 75% of their time in them, and we all seem unable to stop them spreading across our calendars like a red rash of pseudo-busyness. How can we get a grip? Host Isabel Berwick speaks to Kaz Nejatian, CEO of Shopify, to find out why the company slashed staff meetings and what the effects of that policy – dubbed “Chaos Monkey” – have been. Isabel also speaks to Dr Joe Allen, director of the Center for Meeting Effectiveness at the University of Utah, to find out how managers can make meetings less painful.

💡 Think - Utopia or Dystopia?

I'm struck by the profound contrasts that envelop us in today's current global climate. The Wall Street Journal's recent online tech session showcased the transformative potential of AI, painting a picture of a future where technology profoundly amplifies human capabilities and reshapes the essence of work itself. Yet, even as we stand at the threshold of such a utopia, parts of the world, notably the Middle East, bear witness to unsettling dystopia. The devastating conflicts and escalating instability present a stark counterpoint to our optimism about boundless growth.

While the nature of modern conflicts has evolved—shifting from traditional warfare to regional skirmishes and economic confrontations—I remain hopeful. Our world's increasing interconnectedness, driven by technology and trade, suggests a pivot toward a more collaborative future.

This fabric of shared interests and mutual dependencies could very well nudge leaders towards paths of peace and shared growth. As I navigate these dichotomies, I believe that our collective experiences and wisdom will guide us through these turbulent times. Apologies to Musk, but sounding the alarms to WW3 seems overblown.

Charts of the Week

Quote of the Week

Tweets of the Week

I wouldn’t normally share my own Tweet, but since this would be my first one to go borderline ‘viral’, I figured I’d put it up there.

Finally...

Thanks so much for reading. I’d love to know what you think about this issue and how I can make it more useful to you.

If you have suggestions or topics you’re interested in seeing me address, shoot me an email at [email protected]!

Want more?

If you’d like to read more of my writing on the supply chain, entrepreneurship, or the future of work, check out my website.

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Happy reading this weekend!

-- Naseem